Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Grendene S.A. (GRND3.SA)
$7.13
+0.06 (+0.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,333.45 | 2,071.03 | 1,896.79 | 2,342.55 | 2,512.66 | 2,582.40 | 2,654.08 | 2,727.75 | 2,803.47 | 2,881.29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 692.05 | 617.83 | 534.55 | 649.79 | 677.84 | 735.40 | 755.82 | 776.80 | 798.36 | 820.52 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 626.29 | 540.61 | 446.50 | 558.77 | 584.10 | 638.28 | 655.99 | 674.20 | 692.92 | 712.15 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 65.76 | 77.22 | 88.05 | 91.02 | 93.75 | 97.13 | 99.82 | 102.59 | 105.44 | 108.37 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,565.48 | 1,332.41 | 1,502.87 | 1,321.97 | 1,180.90 | 1,622.20 | 1,667.23 | 1,713.51 | 1,761.07 | 1,809.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 280.03 | 263 | 286.78 | 490.33 | 405.66 | 397.15 | 408.17 | 419.50 | 431.15 | 443.11 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 42.10 | 27.84 | 81.44 | 55.95 | 74.70 | 66.13 | 67.96 | 69.85 | 71.79 | 73.78 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -72.27 | -52.43 | -66.25 | -105.72 | -173.13 | -106.01 | -108.95 | -111.97 | -115.08 | -118.28 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.13 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.545 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 902.18 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 1.27 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.76% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.137 |
| Total Debt | 150.55 |
| Total Equity | 6,432.55 |
| Total Capital | 6,583.09 |
| Debt Weighting | 2.29 |
| Equity Weighting | 97.71 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,333.45 | 2,071.03 | 1,896.79 | 2,342.55 | 2,512.66 | 2,582.40 | 2,654.08 | 2,727.75 | 2,803.47 | 2,881.29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 692.05 | 617.83 | 534.55 | 649.79 | 677.84 | 735.40 | 755.82 | 776.80 | 798.36 | 820.52 |
| EBIT | 626.29 | 540.61 | 446.50 | 558.77 | 584.10 | 638.28 | 655.99 | 674.20 | 692.92 | 712.15 |
| Tax Rate | 4.92% | 6.89% | 7.62% | -8.73% | 1.27% | 2.39% | 2.39% | 2.39% | 2.39% | 2.39% |
| EBIAT | 595.46 | 503.34 | 412.50 | 607.57 | 576.69 | 623 | 640.30 | 658.07 | 676.34 | 695.11 |
| Depreciation | 65.76 | 77.22 | 88.05 | 91.02 | 93.75 | 97.13 | 99.82 | 102.59 | 105.44 | 108.37 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 17.03 | -23.78 | -203.54 | 84.66 | 8.52 | -11.02 | -11.33 | -11.64 | -11.97 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -14.25 | 53.60 | -25.49 | 18.75 | -8.57 | 1.84 | 1.89 | 1.94 | 1.99 |
| Capital Expenditure | -72.27 | -52.43 | -66.25 | -105.72 | -173.13 | -106.01 | -108.95 | -111.97 | -115.08 | -118.28 |
| UFCF | 588.96 | 530.91 | 464.11 | 363.84 | 600.72 | 614.06 | 621.98 | 639.25 | 656.99 | 675.23 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 578.60 | 552.21 | 534.75 | 517.85 | 501.49 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,684.89 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.13 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 688.73 |
| Terminal Value | 16,676.29 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 12,385.36 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 15,070.25 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 23.14 |
| Equity Value | 15,047.11 |
| Shares Outstanding | 902.18 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 16.68 |