Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE.TO)
$1.5
-0.12 (-7.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 421.73 | 613.43 | 570.98 | 237.84 | 473.72 | 567.72 | 680.36 | 815.36 | 977.14 | 1,171.02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 48.80 | 175.67 | 135.87 | -802.85 | 213.58 | -259.41 | -310.89 | -372.57 | -446.50 | -535.09 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -259.41 | -310.89 | -372.57 | -446.50 | -535.09 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 37.38 | 83.76 | 103.04 | 62.01 | 26.11 | 81.92 | 98.17 | 117.65 | 141 | 168.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 86.18 | 104.44 | 172.13 | 58.01 | 58.69 | 118.52 | 142.04 | 170.22 | 204 | 244.47 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 7.08 | 10.29 | 9.58 | 3.99 | 7.95 | 9.52 | 11.41 | 13.68 | 16.39 | 19.65 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 99.15 | 123.91 | 151.75 | 70.45 | 91.10 | 135.27 | 162.11 | 194.28 | 232.83 | 279.02 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -285.45 | -400.29 | -457.09 | -96.28 | -149.88 | -323.73 | -387.96 | -464.94 | -557.19 | -667.75 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.799 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 376.50 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -83.62 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.73% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.284 |
| Total Debt | 654.39 |
| Total Equity | 564.74 |
| Total Capital | 1,219.13 |
| Debt Weighting | 53.68 |
| Equity Weighting | 46.32 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 421.73 | 613.43 | 570.98 | 237.84 | 473.72 | 567.72 | 680.36 | 815.36 | 977.14 | 1,171.02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 48.80 | 175.67 | 135.87 | -802.85 | 213.58 | -259.41 | -310.89 | -372.57 | -446.50 | -535.09 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -259.41 | -310.89 | -372.57 | -446.50 | -535.09 |
| Tax Rate | 184.94% | 32.26% | 59.69% | 8.83% | -83.62% | 40.42% | 40.42% | 40.42% | 40.42% | 40.42% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | -154.56 | -185.22 | -221.98 | -266.02 | -318.80 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -18.25 | -67.69 | 114.12 | -0.69 | -59.83 | -23.52 | -28.18 | -33.78 | -40.48 |
| Inventories | - | -3.22 | 0.71 | 5.59 | -3.96 | -1.58 | -1.89 | -2.26 | -2.71 | -3.25 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 24.76 | 27.84 | -81.30 | 20.65 | 44.17 | 26.84 | 32.17 | 38.55 | 46.20 |
| Capital Expenditure | -285.45 | -400.29 | -457.09 | -96.28 | -149.88 | -323.73 | -387.96 | -464.94 | -557.19 | -667.75 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -495.52 | -571.75 | -685.20 | -821.15 | -984.08 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -453.03 | -477.89 | -523.60 | -573.68 | -628.55 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -2,656.76 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.38 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,003.76 |
| Terminal Value | -13,601.13 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -8,687.31 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -11,344.07 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 628.28 |
| Equity Value | -11,972.35 |
| Shares Outstanding | 376.50 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -31.80 |