Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE.TO)

$1.5

-0.12 (-7.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -31.80 | 1.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 421.73613.43570.98237.84473.72567.72680.36815.36977.141,171.02
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 48.80175.67135.87-802.85213.58-259.41-310.89-372.57-446.50-535.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT ------259.41-310.89-372.57-446.50-535.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 37.3883.76103.0462.0126.1181.9298.17117.65141168.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 86.18104.44172.1358.0158.69118.52142.04170.22204244.47
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7.0810.299.583.997.959.5211.4113.6816.3919.65
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 99.15123.91151.7570.4591.10135.27162.11194.28232.83279.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -285.45-400.29-457.09-96.28-149.88-323.73-387.96-464.94-557.19-667.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.5
Beta 1.799
Diluted Shares Outstanding 376.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -83.62
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.73%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.284
Total Debt 654.39
Total Equity 564.74
Total Capital 1,219.13
Debt Weighting 53.68
Equity Weighting 46.32
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 421.73613.43570.98237.84473.72567.72680.36815.36977.141,171.02
EBITDA 48.80175.67135.87-802.85213.58-259.41-310.89-372.57-446.50-535.09
EBIT ------259.41-310.89-372.57-446.50-535.09
Tax Rate 184.94%32.26%59.69%8.83%-83.62%40.42%40.42%40.42%40.42%40.42%
EBIAT ------154.56-185.22-221.98-266.02-318.80
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable --18.25-67.69114.12-0.69-59.83-23.52-28.18-33.78-40.48
Inventories --3.220.715.59-3.96-1.58-1.89-2.26-2.71-3.25
Accounts Payable -24.7627.84-81.3020.6544.1726.8432.1738.5546.20
Capital Expenditure -285.45-400.29-457.09-96.28-149.88-323.73-387.96-464.94-557.19-667.75
UFCF ------495.52-571.75-685.20-821.15-984.08
WACC
PV UFCF -453.03-477.89-523.60-573.68-628.55
SUM PV UFCF -2,656.76

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,003.76
Terminal Value -13,601.13
Present Value of Terminal Value -8,687.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -11,344.07
Net Debt 628.28
Equity Value -11,972.35
Shares Outstanding 376.50
Equity Value Per Share -31.80