Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gray Television, Inc. (GTN)

$17.58

+0.69 (+4.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1,390.11 | 17.58 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 882.731,084.132,1222,3812,4133,209.884,269.935,680.067,555.8710,051.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 386.62490.157169746321,218.791,621.292,156.712,868.953,816.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 288.54394.28482735373886.551,179.331,568.792,086.882,776.07
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 98.0895.87234239259332.24441.96587.91782.071,040.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 462.40666.982127731891,054.081,402.191,865.262,481.253,300.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 171.23183.59411446645649.44863.921,149.221,528.742,033.60
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7.848.4011105932.4043.1057.3376.26101.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -34.52-69.97-110-110-207-184.55-245.49-326.57-434.41-577.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.58
Beta 1.730
Diluted Shares Outstanding 95
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 46.43
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.053
Total Debt 6,827
Total Equity 1,670.10
Total Capital 8,497.10
Debt Weighting 80.35
Equity Weighting 19.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 882.731,084.132,1222,3812,4133,209.884,269.935,680.067,555.8710,051.16
EBITDA 386.62490.157169746321,218.791,621.292,156.712,868.953,816.41
EBIT 288.54394.28482735373886.551,179.331,568.792,086.882,776.07
Tax Rate -35.53%26.72%29.80%24.63%46.43%18.41%18.41%18.41%18.41%18.41%
EBIAT 391.06288.94338.35553.95199.82723.34962.221,279.981,702.692,265
Depreciation 98.0895.87234239259332.24441.96587.91782.071,040.34
Accounts Receivable --12.36-227.41-35-199-4.44-214.47-285.30-379.52-504.86
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.562.60-149-26.6010.7014.2318.9325.19
Capital Expenditure -34.52-69.97-110-110-207-184.55-245.49-326.57-434.41-577.88
UFCF 454.62303.04237.53646.95101.82839.99954.901,270.261,689.752,247.79
WACC
PV UFCF 811.89892.101,147.031,474.801,896.24
SUM PV UFCF 6,222.06

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.46
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,292.74
Terminal Value 157,037.14
Present Value of Terminal Value 132,476.85

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 138,698.91
Net Debt 6,638
Equity Value 132,060.91
Shares Outstanding 95
Equity Value Per Share 1,390.11