Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX)

$6.68

-0.25 (-3.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 9.66 | 6.68 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,0963,3753,2483,0343,6333,800.143,974.984,157.864,349.154,549.24
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 438487488285724554.24579.74606.41634.31663.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 374415415199632464.44485.81508.16531.54556
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 647273869289.8093.9398.25102.77107.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 598196187592423471.49493.18515.87539.60564.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,2757507078737731,027.731,075.011,124.471,176.211,230.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 188172220235244246.28257.61269.46281.86294.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8609161,0091,0191,0061,119.221,170.711,224.581,280.911,339.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -103-95-102-80-72-105.65-110.51-115.59-120.91-126.48
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.68
Beta 1.410
Diluted Shares Outstanding 312.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.99
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.419
Total Debt 1,239
Total Equity 2,089.80
Total Capital 3,328.80
Debt Weighting 37.22
Equity Weighting 62.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,0963,3753,2483,0343,6333,800.143,974.984,157.864,349.154,549.24
EBITDA 438487488285724554.24579.74606.41634.31663.49
EBIT 374415415199632464.44485.81508.16531.54556
Tax Rate 368.58%-197.98%9.54%32.77%7.99%44.18%44.18%44.18%44.18%44.18%
EBIAT -1,004.491,236.62375.42133.78581.49259.25271.18283.65296.70310.35
Depreciation 647273869289.8093.9398.25102.77107.50
Accounts Receivable -52543-166100-254.73-47.28-49.46-51.73-54.11
Inventories -16-48-15-9-2.28-11.33-11.85-12.40-12.97
Accounts Payable -569310-13113.2251.4953.8656.3458.93
Capital Expenditure -103-95-102-80-72-105.65-110.51-115.59-120.91-126.48
UFCF -1,043.491,810.62434.42-31.22679.4999.61247.47258.86270.77283.23
WACC
PV UFCF 91.80210.18202.61195.31188.27
SUM PV UFCF 888.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) 288.89
Terminal Value 4,437.64
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,949.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,838.04
Net Debt 816
Equity Value 3,022.04
Shares Outstanding 312.84
Equity Value Per Share 9.66