Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX)
$6.68
-0.25 (-3.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,096 | 3,375 | 3,248 | 3,034 | 3,633 | 3,800.14 | 3,974.98 | 4,157.86 | 4,349.15 | 4,549.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 438 | 487 | 488 | 285 | 724 | 554.24 | 579.74 | 606.41 | 634.31 | 663.49 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 374 | 415 | 415 | 199 | 632 | 464.44 | 485.81 | 508.16 | 531.54 | 556 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 64 | 72 | 73 | 86 | 92 | 89.80 | 93.93 | 98.25 | 102.77 | 107.50 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 598 | 196 | 187 | 592 | 423 | 471.49 | 493.18 | 515.87 | 539.60 | 564.43 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,275 | 750 | 707 | 873 | 773 | 1,027.73 | 1,075.01 | 1,124.47 | 1,176.21 | 1,230.32 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 188 | 172 | 220 | 235 | 244 | 246.28 | 257.61 | 269.46 | 281.86 | 294.83 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 860 | 916 | 1,009 | 1,019 | 1,006 | 1,119.22 | 1,170.71 | 1,224.58 | 1,280.91 | 1,339.85 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -103 | -95 | -102 | -80 | -72 | -105.65 | -110.51 | -115.59 | -120.91 | -126.48 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.68 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.410 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 312.84 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 7.99 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.98% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.419 |
| Total Debt | 1,239 |
| Total Equity | 2,089.80 |
| Total Capital | 3,328.80 |
| Debt Weighting | 37.22 |
| Equity Weighting | 62.78 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,096 | 3,375 | 3,248 | 3,034 | 3,633 | 3,800.14 | 3,974.98 | 4,157.86 | 4,349.15 | 4,549.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 438 | 487 | 488 | 285 | 724 | 554.24 | 579.74 | 606.41 | 634.31 | 663.49 |
| EBIT | 374 | 415 | 415 | 199 | 632 | 464.44 | 485.81 | 508.16 | 531.54 | 556 |
| Tax Rate | 368.58% | -197.98% | 9.54% | 32.77% | 7.99% | 44.18% | 44.18% | 44.18% | 44.18% | 44.18% |
| EBIAT | -1,004.49 | 1,236.62 | 375.42 | 133.78 | 581.49 | 259.25 | 271.18 | 283.65 | 296.70 | 310.35 |
| Depreciation | 64 | 72 | 73 | 86 | 92 | 89.80 | 93.93 | 98.25 | 102.77 | 107.50 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 525 | 43 | -166 | 100 | -254.73 | -47.28 | -49.46 | -51.73 | -54.11 |
| Inventories | - | 16 | -48 | -15 | -9 | -2.28 | -11.33 | -11.85 | -12.40 | -12.97 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 56 | 93 | 10 | -13 | 113.22 | 51.49 | 53.86 | 56.34 | 58.93 |
| Capital Expenditure | -103 | -95 | -102 | -80 | -72 | -105.65 | -110.51 | -115.59 | -120.91 | -126.48 |
| UFCF | -1,043.49 | 1,810.62 | 434.42 | -31.22 | 679.49 | 99.61 | 247.47 | 258.86 | 270.77 | 283.23 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 91.80 | 210.18 | 202.61 | 195.31 | 188.27 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 888.16 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.51 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 288.89 |
| Terminal Value | 4,437.64 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,949.88 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,838.04 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 816 |
| Equity Value | 3,022.04 |
| Shares Outstanding | 312.84 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 9.66 |