Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

HAL Trust (HAL.AS)

113.2 €

-0.40 (-0.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 375.08 | 113.2 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 8,005.308,373.305,1845,316.407,313.507,434.677,557.847,683.057,810.347,939.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,413.801,146.101,933.301,508.205,341.202,528.422,570.312,612.902,656.182,700.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 721.90451.60891.60817.704,598.501,633.661,660.731,688.241,716.211,744.64
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 691.90694.501,041.70690.50742.70894.76909.59924.66939.98955.55
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,829.902,551.201,781.201,622.706,693.703,304.353,359.103,414.753,471.323,528.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 842.70831.20664.30716.90967.40891.87906.64921.66936.93952.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 800.10861771.90894.401,040.60984.641,000.951,017.531,034.391,051.53
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -702.60-937.60-1,058.10-971.20-823.30-1,039.52-1,056.74-1,074.25-1,092.05-1,110.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 113.2
Beta 0.699
Diluted Shares Outstanding 79.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.75
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.126
Total Debt 4,803.90
Total Equity 9,040.98
Total Capital 13,844.88
Debt Weighting 34.70
Equity Weighting 65.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 8,005.308,373.305,1845,316.407,313.507,434.677,557.847,683.057,810.347,939.74
EBITDA 1,413.801,146.101,933.301,508.205,341.202,528.422,570.312,612.902,656.182,700.19
EBIT 721.90451.60891.60817.704,598.501,633.661,660.731,688.241,716.211,744.64
Tax Rate 49.92%71.19%4.51%-54.73%1.75%14.53%14.53%14.53%14.53%14.53%
EBIAT 361.51130.12851.431,265.204,518.191,396.341,419.471,442.991,466.891,491.20
Depreciation 691.90694.501,041.70690.50742.70894.76909.59924.66939.98955.55
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -11.50166.90-52.60-250.5075.53-14.78-15.02-15.27-15.52
Accounts Payable -60.90-89.10122.50146.20-55.9616.3116.5816.8617.14
Capital Expenditure -702.60-937.60-1,058.10-971.20-823.30-1,039.52-1,056.74-1,074.25-1,092.05-1,110.14
UFCF 350.81-40.58912.831,054.404,333.291,271.151,273.851,294.961,316.411,338.22
WACC
PV UFCF 1,201.351,137.801,093.141,050.231,009.01
SUM PV UFCF 5,491.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,364.98
Terminal Value 35,826.34
Present Value of Terminal Value 27,012.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 32,504.27
Net Debt 2,547.50
Equity Value 29,956.77
Shares Outstanding 79.87
Equity Value Per Share 375.08