Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc (HCCI)

$30.53

-0.22 (-0.72%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 9.86 | 30.53 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 365.96410.18444.43489.83539.88595.04655.83722.83796.68878.08967.79
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 53.1137.3930.7249.8654.9660.5766.7673.5881.1089.3998.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 35.1421.2312.4728.7131.6534.8838.4442.3746.7051.4756.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17.9716.1618.2521.1523.3125.7028.3231.2134.4037.9241.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 41.8943.5860.6958.3364.2970.8678.1086.0894.88104.57115.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 45.4951.7455.5961.3267.5874.4882.0990.4899.73109.91121.14
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 21.6433.0629.3733.6137.0440.8244.9949.5954.6660.2466.40
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 25.5732.6338.0638.3842.3046.6251.3856.6362.4268.8075.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -14.40-22.82-31.29-27.01-29.76-32.81-36.16-39.85-43.92-48.41-53.36
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.53
Beta 1.254
Diluted Shares Outstanding 23.56
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.73
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.708
Total Debt 85.19
Total Equity 719.20
Total Capital 804.38
Debt Weighting 10.59
Equity Weighting 89.41
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 365.96410.18444.43489.83539.88595.04655.83722.83796.68878.08967.79
EBITDA 53.1137.3930.7249.8654.9660.5766.7673.5881.1089.3998.52
EBIT 35.1421.2312.4728.7131.6534.8838.4442.3746.7051.4756.73
Tax Rate 18.09%28.12%30.26%26.20%28.79%25.73%26.20%26.20%26.20%26.20%26.20%
EBIAT 28.7815.268.7021.1922.5425.9028.3731.2734.4737.9941.87
Depreciation 17.9716.1618.2521.1523.3125.7028.3231.2134.4037.9241.79
Accounts Receivable --6.25-3.84-5.73-6.26-6.90-7.61-8.39-9.24-10.19-11.23
Inventories --11.423.69-4.23-3.43-3.78-4.17-4.60-5.07-5.58-6.15
Accounts Payable -7.065.430.323.924.324.765.255.796.387.03
Capital Expenditure -14.40-22.82-31.29-27.01-23.71-24.09-36.16-39.85-43.92-48.41-53.36
UFCF 32.35-2.010.935.7010.3112.4313.5214.9016.4218.1019.95
WACC
PV UFCF 6.2010.3111.4311.4311.5811.7311.8912.05
SUM PV UFCF 63.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.77
Free cash flow (t + 1) 20.35
Terminal Value 300.55
Present Value of Terminal Value 197.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 261.23
Net Debt 28.92
Equity Value 232.31
Shares Outstanding 23.56
Equity Value Per Share 9.86