Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)

$39.2

-1.33 (-3.28%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 17.19 | 39.2 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 244.41231.29242.47311.05407.91467.97536.87615.92706.60810.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 10.7355.9957.9357.2517.6470.4080.7792.66106.30121.96
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1.144548.9948.5017.6356.2064.4773.9684.8597.35
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9.59118.948.75014.2116.3018.7021.4524.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 552.28488.66432.55503.060.29727.64834.77957.671,098.671,260.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 141.48146.48165.07169.59248.64285.25327.24375.43430.70494.11
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.010.010.080.090.070.080.100.110.130.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.98-2.60-2.89-6.44-3.32-6-6.89-7.90-9.06-10.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39.2
Beta 0.781
Diluted Shares Outstanding 9.69
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 35.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.06%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.491
Total Debt 45.50
Total Equity 380
Total Capital 425.51
Debt Weighting 10.69
Equity Weighting 89.31
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 244.41231.29242.47311.05407.91467.97536.87615.92706.60810.63
EBITDA 10.7355.9957.9357.2517.6470.4080.7792.66106.30121.96
EBIT 1.144548.9948.5017.6356.2064.4773.9684.8597.35
Tax Rate 55.88%34.11%26.37%25.31%35.53%35.44%35.44%35.44%35.44%35.44%
EBIAT 0.5029.6536.0736.2311.3736.2841.6247.7554.7862.85
Depreciation 9.59118.948.75014.2116.3018.7021.4524.61
Accounts Receivable --5-18.59-4.52-79.05-36.61-42-48.18-55.27-63.41
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --00.060.01-0.010.010.010.010.020.02
Capital Expenditure -2.98-2.60-2.89-6.44-3.32-6-6.89-7.90-9.06-10.40
UFCF 7.1233.0523.6034.03-71.017.899.0510.3811.9113.66
WACC
PV UFCF 7.337.818.328.869.45
SUM PV UFCF 41.76

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) 13.94
Terminal Value 246.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 170.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 212
Net Debt 45.41
Equity Value 166.59
Shares Outstanding 9.69
Equity Value Per Share 17.19