Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)
$88.4
+0.35 (+0.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 231.29 | 242.47 | 274.08 | 407.91 | 496.45 | 606.16 | 740.13 | 903.71 | 1,103.44 | 1,347.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 55.99 | 43.15 | 43.82 | 4.95 | -56.67 | 57.94 | 70.75 | 86.38 | 105.47 | 128.78 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 45 | 34.21 | 35.07 | -0.60 | -64.68 | 40.23 | 49.12 | 59.98 | 73.23 | 89.42 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 11 | 8.94 | 8.75 | 5.55 | 8.01 | 17.71 | 21.62 | 26.40 | 32.24 | 39.36 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 488.66 | 432.55 | 503.06 | 671.53 | 718.76 | 1,070.02 | 1,306.51 | 1,595.25 | 1,947.82 | 2,378.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 143.34 | 155.59 | 158.67 | 149.24 | 728.12 | 445.27 | 543.68 | 663.84 | 810.55 | 989.69 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 4.02 | 8.61 | 3.38 | 4.13 | 5.04 | 6.15 | 7.51 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.60 | -2.89 | -6.44 | -3.32 | -10.14 | -9.11 | -11.13 | -13.59 | -16.59 | -20.26 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 88.4 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.032 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8.58 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.19 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.40% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.126 |
| Total Debt | 212.41 |
| Total Equity | 758.47 |
| Total Capital | 970.88 |
| Debt Weighting | 21.88 |
| Equity Weighting | 78.12 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 231.29 | 242.47 | 274.08 | 407.91 | 496.45 | 606.16 | 740.13 | 903.71 | 1,103.44 | 1,347.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 55.99 | 43.15 | 43.82 | 4.95 | -56.67 | 57.94 | 70.75 | 86.38 | 105.47 | 128.78 |
| EBIT | 45 | 34.21 | 35.07 | -0.60 | -64.68 | 40.23 | 49.12 | 59.98 | 73.23 | 89.42 |
| Tax Rate | 34.11% | 26.37% | 25.31% | 35.53% | 20.19% | 28.30% | 28.30% | 28.30% | 28.30% | 28.30% |
| EBIAT | 29.65 | 25.19 | 26.20 | -0.39 | -51.62 | 28.84 | 35.22 | 43 | 52.51 | 64.11 |
| Depreciation | 11 | 8.94 | 8.75 | 5.55 | 8.01 | 17.71 | 21.62 | 26.40 | 32.24 | 39.36 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -12.25 | -3.08 | 9.43 | -578.87 | 282.84 | -98.41 | -120.16 | -146.71 | -179.14 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.06 | 0.01 | 3.93 | 4.59 | -5.23 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 1.11 | 1.36 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.60 | -2.89 | -6.44 | -3.32 | -10.14 | -9.11 | -11.13 | -13.59 | -16.59 | -20.26 |
| UFCF | 38.05 | 19.06 | 25.44 | 15.20 | -628.04 | 315.06 | -51.95 | -63.43 | -77.45 | -94.56 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 292.07 | -44.64 | -50.53 | -57.20 | -64.75 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 74.94 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.87 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -96.46 |
| Terminal Value | -1,643.20 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,125.09 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,050.15 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -22.45 |
| Equity Value | -1,027.70 |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.58 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -119.78 |