Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Heineken Holding N.V. (HEIO.AS)

79.55 €

-1.00 (-1.24%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 134.81 | 79.55 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	22,471	23,969	19,715	21,941	28,719	30,951.99	33,358.61	35,952.35	38,747.76	41,760.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,952	4,530	3,548	4,910	4,818	5,796.54	6,247.24	6,732.98	7,256.49	7,820.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,259	2,571	674	2,951	2,932	2,962.54	3,192.89	3,441.14	3,708.70	3,997.07
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,693	1,959	2,874	1,959	1,886	2,834	3,054.35	3,291.83	3,547.78	3,823.64
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	2,903	1,821	4,000	3,248	2,765	4,038.39	4,352.39	4,690.80	5,055.53	5,448.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,920	2,213	1,958	2,438	3,250	3,103.67	3,344.99	3,605.07	3,885.38	4,187.48
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	4,016	4,720	3,663	4,631	9,283	6,783.06	7,310.47	7,878.88	8,491.49	9,151.73
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-2,055	-2,101	-1,640	-1,597	-2,011	-2,507.74	-2,702.72	-2,912.87	-3,139.35	-3,383.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 79.55
Beta	0.651
Diluted Shares Outstanding	288.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	67.79
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.708
Total Debt	16,377
Total Equity	22,912.80
Total Capital	39,289.80
Debt Weighting	41.68
Equity Weighting	58.32
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	22,471	23,969	19,715	21,941	28,719	30,951.99	33,358.61	35,952.35	38,747.76	41,760.52
EBITDA	3,952	4,530	3,548	4,910	4,818	5,796.54	6,247.24	6,732.98	7,256.49	7,820.70
EBIT	2,259	2,571	674	2,951	2,932	2,962.54	3,192.89	3,441.14	3,708.70	3,997.07
Tax Rate	66.30%	66.90%	164.97%	61.63%	67.79%	85.52%	85.52%	85.52%	85.52%	85.52%
EBIAT	761.18	851	-437.89	1,132.33	944.29	429	462.36	498.31	537.05	578.81
Depreciation	1,693	1,959	2,874	1,959	1,886	2,834	3,054.35	3,291.83	3,547.78	3,823.64
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-293	255	-480	-812	146.33	-241.32	-260.08	-280.31	-302.10
Accounts Payable	-	704	-1,057	968	4,652	-2,499.94	527.40	568.41	612.61	660.24
Capital Expenditure	-2,055	-2,101	-1,640	-1,597	-2,011	-2,507.74	-2,702.72	-2,912.87	-3,139.35	-3,383.45
UFCF	399.18	1,120	-5.88	1,982.33	4,659.29	-1,598.34	1,100.07	1,185.61	1,277.79	1,377.14
WACC
PV UFCF						-1,532.59	1,011.43	1,045.23	1,080.16	1,116.26
SUM PV UFCF										2,720.49

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.29
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,404.69
Terminal Value	61,340.03
Present Value of Terminal Value	49,719.94

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	52,440.44
Net Debt	13,612
Equity Value	38,828.44
Shares Outstanding	288.03
Equity Value Per Share	134.81