Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hess Corporation (HES)

$104.6

-9.80 (-8.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -6.78 | 104.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,4666,3236,4954,6677,4738,414.209,473.9310,667.1412,010.6313,523.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -5,586452433-5623,168-976.54-1,099.54-1,238.02-1,393.94-1,569.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -5,586452433-2,6361,640-3,706.39-4,173.20-4,698.79-5,290.59-5,956.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---2,0741,5282,729.843,073.663,460.773,896.654,387.41
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4,8472,6941,5451,7392,7133,847.564,332.154,877.765,492.106,183.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,0241,0011,1708601,326.571,493.651,681.771,893.582,132.072,400.60
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 232245261378378.08425.70479.31539.68607.65684.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 435495411200493.22555.34625.28704.04792.71892.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,937-2,097-2,829-2,197-1,747-3,073.05-3,460.09-3,895.88-4,386.55-4,939.02
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 104.6
Beta 1.566
Diluted Shares Outstanding 310
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 62.48
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.97%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.089
Total Debt 9,141
Total Equity 32,426
Total Capital 41,567
Debt Weighting 21.99
Equity Weighting 78.01
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,4666,3236,4954,6677,4738,414.209,473.9310,667.1412,010.6313,523.32
EBITDA -5,586452433-5623,168-976.54-1,099.54-1,238.02-1,393.94-1,569.51
EBIT -5,586452433-2,6361,640-3,706.39-4,173.20-4,698.79-5,290.59-5,956.92
Tax Rate 29.49%228.18%284.62%-8.53%62.48%119.25%119.25%119.25%119.25%119.25%
EBIAT -3,938.62-579.38-799.38-2,860.75615.28713.44803.30904.471,018.391,146.65
Depreciation ---2,0741,5282,729.843,073.663,460.773,896.654,387.41
Accounts Receivable -23-169310-466.57-167.08-188.12-211.81-238.49-268.53
Inventories --13-16-117-0.08-47.62-53.61-60.37-67.97-76.53
Accounts Payable -60-84-211293.2262.1269.9478.7588.6799.84
Capital Expenditure -1,937-2,097-2,829-2,197-1,747-3,073.05-3,460.09-3,895.88-4,386.55-4,939.02
UFCF -5,875.62-2,606.38-3,897.38-3,001.75222.84217.66245.07275.94310.70349.83
WACC
PV UFCF 199.54205.97212.61219.46226.53
SUM PV UFCF 1,064.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.08
Free cash flow (t + 1) 356.82
Terminal Value 5,039.86
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,263.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,327.69
Net Debt 6,428
Equity Value -2,100.31
Shares Outstanding 310
Equity Value Per Share -6.78