Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Company (HMHC)

$21.03

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -48.43 | 21.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,407.511,322.421,390.671,031.291,050.80985.56924.37866.98813.15762.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 167.70207.59127.79-184.40461.94123.95116.25109.04102.2795.92
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -110.82-42.88-160.85-426.28251.26-79.05-74.15-69.54-65.22-61.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 278.52250.47288.64241.89210.68203190.40178.58167.49157.09
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 235.43303.20296.35281.20463.13260.79244.60229.41215.17201.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 201.08203.57184.42152.83135.50139.27130.62122.51114.91107.77
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 154.64184.21213.06166.96117.47133.26124.99117.23109.95103.12
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 61.5076.3152.1349.1037.4543.7941.0738.5236.1333.88
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -60.29-53.74-37.56-50.94-39.09-38.85-36.44-34.17-32.05-30.06
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.03
Beta 1.136
Diluted Shares Outstanding 131.65
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -4,400.17
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.73%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.165
Total Debt 452.54
Total Equity 2,768.65
Total Capital 3,221.19
Debt Weighting 14.05
Equity Weighting 85.95
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,407.511,322.421,390.671,031.291,050.80985.56924.37866.98813.15762.67
EBITDA 167.70207.59127.79-184.40461.94123.95116.25109.04102.2795.92
EBIT -110.82-42.88-160.85-426.28251.26-79.05-74.15-69.54-65.22-61.17
Tax Rate 32.83%28.59%-2.00%2.52%-4,400.17%-867.65%-867.65%-867.65%-867.65%-867.65%
EBIAT -74.44-30.62-164.08-415.5411,307.21-764.95-717.46-672.92-631.14-591.95
Depreciation 278.52250.47288.64241.89210.68203190.40178.58167.49157.09
Accounts Receivable --2.4919.1531.5917.34-3.788.658.117.617.13
Inventories --29.57-28.8546.1049.49-15.798.277.767.286.83
Accounts Payable -14.81-24.18-3.02-11.666.34-2.72-2.55-2.39-2.24
Capital Expenditure -60.29-53.74-37.56-50.94-39.09-38.85-36.44-34.17-32.05-30.06
UFCF 143.79148.8653.12-149.9311,533.98-614.03-549.30-515.19-483.21-453.21
WACC
PV UFCF -563.54-462.67-398.26-342.82-295.09
SUM PV UFCF -2,062.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) -462.27
Terminal Value -6,641.81
Present Value of Terminal Value -4,324.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,387.03
Net Debt -10.59
Equity Value -6,376.44
Shares Outstanding 131.65
Equity Value Per Share -48.43