Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Neinor Homes, S.A. (HOME.MC)

9.3 €

+0.05 (+0.54%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -1,878.29 | 9.3 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	220.39	379.99	488.86	572.80	914.30	1,320.84	1,908.15	2,756.61	3,982.32	5,753.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-17.57	52.15	94.25	101.14	148.95	155.81	225.09	325.17	469.75	678.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-18.29	50.86	90.29	97.04	144.05	148.61	214.68	310.14	448.04	647.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	0.72	1.29	3.95	4.10	4.90	7.20	10.40	15.03	21.71	31.36
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	77.28	113.77	186.17	272.41	283.33	479.82	693.17	1,001.38	1,446.64	2,089.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,140.27	1,206.60	1,190.42	1,184.17	1,301.36	3,771.03	5,447.80	7,870.15	11,369.59	16,425.05
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	41.60	54.72	150.83	183.87	255.32	327.98	473.81	684.50	988.85	1,428.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1.23	-6.73	-1.83	-0.81	-0.74	-7.73	-11.16	-16.13	-23.30	-33.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 9.3
Beta	0.472
Diluted Shares Outstanding	73.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	16.33
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.745
Total Debt	557.07
Total Equity	687.55
Total Capital	1,244.62
Debt Weighting	44.76
Equity Weighting	55.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	220.39	379.99	488.86	572.80	914.30	1,320.84	1,908.15	2,756.61	3,982.32	5,753.05
EBITDA	-17.57	52.15	94.25	101.14	148.95	155.81	225.09	325.17	469.75	678.63
EBIT	-18.29	50.86	90.29	97.04	144.05	148.61	214.68	310.14	448.04	647.26
Tax Rate	0.13%	-14.45%	21.58%	22.69%	16.33%	9.26%	9.26%	9.26%	9.26%	9.26%
EBIAT	-18.26	58.21	70.81	75.02	120.52	134.85	194.81	281.43	406.57	587.36
Depreciation	0.72	1.29	3.95	4.10	4.90	7.20	10.40	15.03	21.71	31.36
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-66.33	16.19	6.24	-117.18	-2,469.67	-1,676.78	-2,422.35	-3,499.44	-5,055.46
Accounts Payable	-	13.12	96.11	33.04	71.45	72.66	145.84	210.68	304.36	439.69
Capital Expenditure	-1.23	-6.73	-1.83	-0.81	-0.74	-7.73	-11.16	-16.13	-23.30	-33.66
UFCF	-18.77	-0.44	185.22	117.59	78.95	-2,262.69	-1,336.89	-1,931.34	-2,790.10	-4,030.71
WACC
PV UFCF						-2,163.80	-1,222.59	-1,689.03	-2,333.41	-3,223.64
SUM PV UFCF										-10,632.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.57
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-4,111.33
Terminal Value	-159,973.74
Present Value of Terminal Value	-127,942

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-138,574.47
Net Debt	287.39
Equity Value	-138,861.86
Shares Outstanding	73.93
Equity Value Per Share	-1,878.29