Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ICPT)

$14.305

+0.24 (+1.74%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1,421.72 | 14.305 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 130.96179.80252312.69363.47470.49609.02788.341,020.461,320.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -326.49-274.14-299.87-223.71-141.17-593.91-768.78-995.14-1,288.14-1,667.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -331.10-278.72-303.54-226.83-145.84-603.13-780.71-1,010.58-1,308.14-1,693.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.604.583.663.124.679.2211.9315.452025.89
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 414.92436.16652.62469.67419.691,020.071,320.421,709.212,212.472,863.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18.5725.6938.0441.5547.6265.8385.21110.30142.78184.82
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----8.6211.1614.4418.6924.2031.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.9611.7718.9724.5924.7732.0641.5053.7269.5490.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -10.39-0.17-1.14-3.89-8.84-11.44-14.80-19.16-24.81-32.11
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.305
Beta 1.088
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.74
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt -16.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.940
Total Debt 334.98
Total Equity 453.98
Total Capital 788.96
Debt Weighting 42.46
Equity Weighting 57.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 130.96179.80252312.69363.47470.49609.02788.341,020.461,320.92
EBITDA -326.49-274.14-299.87-223.71-141.17-593.91-768.78-995.14-1,288.14-1,667.43
EBIT -331.10-278.72-303.54-226.83-145.84-603.13-780.71-1,010.58-1,308.14-1,693.31
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
EBIAT -331.10-278.72-303.54-226.83-145.84-603.13-780.71-1,010.58-1,308.14-1,693.31
Depreciation 4.604.583.663.124.679.2211.9315.452025.89
Accounts Receivable --7.12-12.35-3.50-6.07-18.21-19.38-25.09-32.48-42.04
Inventories ------2.54-3.29-4.25-5.50-7.12
Accounts Payable -4.807.215.620.177.299.4412.2215.8220.47
Capital Expenditure -10.39-0.17-1.14-3.89-8.84-11.44-14.80-19.16-24.81-32.11
UFCF -336.89-276.63-306.15-225.48-155.90-618.80-796.81-1,031.42-1,335.11-1,728.23
WACC
PV UFCF -629.89-825.61-1,087.86-1,433.39-1,888.68
SUM PV UFCF -5,865.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -1.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,762.79
Terminal Value 46,882.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 51,235.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 45,370.09
Net Debt 250.27
Equity Value 45,119.82
Shares Outstanding 31.74
Equity Value Per Share 1,421.72