Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ID Logistics Group SA (IDL.PA)
247 €
+7.00 (+2.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,410.30 | 1,534.24 | 1,642.83 | 1,910.87 | 2,481.32 | 2,866.14 | 3,310.64 | 3,824.07 | 4,417.13 | 5,102.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 73.87 | 203.83 | 227.51 | 272.18 | 372.08 | 353.17 | 407.94 | 471.21 | 544.29 | 628.70 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 45.34 | 54.83 | 59.18 | 73.60 | 102.58 | 105.34 | 121.68 | 140.55 | 162.34 | 187.52 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 28.53 | 149 | 168.33 | 198.58 | 269.50 | 247.83 | 286.27 | 330.66 | 381.94 | 441.18 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 125.96 | 119.31 | 171.97 | 182.35 | 217.77 | 260.79 | 301.23 | 347.95 | 401.91 | 464.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.44 | 1.72 | 0.73 | 0.84 | 0.97 | 1.13 | 1.30 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 207.62 | 219.58 | 227.81 | 313.60 | 347.46 | 420.26 | 485.44 | 560.72 | 647.68 | 748.13 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -58.74 | -67.09 | -59.31 | -83.67 | -67.54 | -110.34 | -127.45 | -147.22 | -170.05 | -196.42 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 247 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.881 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | - |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 43.26 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.43% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.688 |
| Total Debt | 1,225.56 |
| Total Equity | - |
| Total Capital | 1,225.56 |
| Debt Weighting | 100.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 0.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,410.30 | 1,534.24 | 1,642.83 | 1,910.87 | 2,481.32 | 2,866.14 | 3,310.64 | 3,824.07 | 4,417.13 | 5,102.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 73.87 | 203.83 | 227.51 | 272.18 | 372.08 | 353.17 | 407.94 | 471.21 | 544.29 | 628.70 |
| EBIT | 45.34 | 54.83 | 59.18 | 73.60 | 102.58 | 105.34 | 121.68 | 140.55 | 162.34 | 187.52 |
| Tax Rate | 37.88% | 49.84% | 41.62% | 34.31% | 43.26% | 41.38% | 41.38% | 41.38% | 41.38% | 41.38% |
| EBIAT | 28.17 | 27.50 | 34.55 | 48.35 | 58.20 | 61.75 | 71.32 | 82.39 | 95.16 | 109.92 |
| Depreciation | 28.53 | 149 | 168.33 | 198.58 | 269.50 | 247.83 | 286.27 | 330.66 | 381.94 | 441.18 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 0.06 | 0.03 | -0.30 | -1.28 | 0.99 | -0.11 | -0.13 | -0.15 | -0.17 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 11.97 | 8.23 | 85.78 | 33.86 | 72.80 | 65.18 | 75.28 | 86.96 | 100.45 |
| Capital Expenditure | -58.74 | -67.09 | -59.31 | -83.67 | -67.54 | -110.34 | -127.45 | -147.22 | -170.05 | -196.42 |
| UFCF | -2.04 | 121.44 | 151.82 | 248.75 | 292.75 | 273.03 | 295.20 | 340.98 | 393.87 | 454.95 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 269.18 | 286.94 | 326.77 | 372.12 | 423.77 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,678.78 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 1.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 464.05 |
| Terminal Value | -81,412.15 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -75,832.80 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -74,154.02 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,041.92 |
| Equity Value | -75,195.95 |
| Shares Outstanding | - |
| Equity Value Per Share | -Infinity |