Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ID Logistics Group SA (IDL.PA)

252 €

+7.50 (+3.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 644.16 | 252 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,329.271,410.301,534.241,642.831,910.872,093.732,294.092,513.622,754.163,017.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 49.5171.01191.50221.94260.55202.62222.01243.25266.53292.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 27.8542.4842.5153.6161.9760.246672.3279.2486.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 21.6528.53149168.33198.58142.38156.01170.94187.29205.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 113.45116.23108.26160.12182.35180.57197.85216.79237.53260.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.130.230.170.140.440.280.310.340.370.41
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 199.01207.62219.58227.81313.60311.06340.82373.44409.18448.33
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -38.54-58.74-67.09-59.31-83.67-81.35-89.13-97.66-107.01-117.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 252
Beta 0.909
Diluted Shares Outstanding 6.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 34.31
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.093
Total Debt 868.08
Total Equity 1,517.88
Total Capital 2,385.96
Debt Weighting 36.38
Equity Weighting 63.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,329.271,410.301,534.241,642.831,910.872,093.732,294.092,513.622,754.163,017.72
EBITDA 49.5171.01191.50221.94260.55202.62222.01243.25266.53292.04
EBIT 27.8542.4842.5153.6161.9760.246672.3279.2486.82
Tax Rate 33.38%37.88%49.84%41.62%34.31%39.41%39.41%39.41%39.41%39.41%
EBIAT 18.5626.3921.3231.3040.7136.5039.9943.8248.0152.61
Depreciation 21.6528.53149168.33198.58142.38156.01170.94187.29205.22
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --0.100.060.03-0.300.15-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.04
Accounts Payable -8.6111.978.2385.78-2.5429.7732.6135.7439.16
Capital Expenditure -38.54-58.74-67.09-59.31-83.67-81.35-89.13-97.66-107.01-117.25
UFCF 1.674.69115.26148.57241.1195.15136.61149.68164179.70
WACC
PV UFCF 90.17122.69127.40132.29137.36
SUM PV UFCF 609.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.52
Free cash flow (t + 1) 183.29
Terminal Value 5,207.17
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,980.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,590.32
Net Debt 710.31
Equity Value 3,880.01
Shares Outstanding 6.02
Equity Value Per Share 644.16