Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Illumina, Inc. (ILMN)

$186.84

+2.72 (+1.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 180.45 | 186.84 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,7523,3333,5434,028.614,580.795,208.645,922.556,734.317,657.348,706.879,900.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,2841,1631,3701,614.381,835.652,087.252,373.332,698.623,068.513,489.083,967.31
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,1289841,1821,394.881,586.061,803.462,050.642,331.712,651.303,014.693,427.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 156179188219.50249.58283.79322.69366.92417.21474.39539.41
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 2,1453,5123,4143,755.654,270.414,855.725,521.266,278.027,138.508,116.929,229.45
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 411514573624.82710.46807.84918.571,044.471,187.621,350.401,535.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 333386359454.08516.32587.09667.55759.05863.09981.381,115.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 160184149208.68237.28269.81306.79348.84396.65451.02512.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -312-296-209-350.72-398.79-453.45-515.60-586.27-666.62-757.99-861.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 186.84
Beta 1.158
Diluted Shares Outstanding 153
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.431
Total Debt 2,540
Total Equity 28,586.52
Total Capital 31,126.52
Debt Weighting 8.16
Equity Weighting 91.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,7523,3333,5434,028.614,580.795,208.645,922.556,734.317,657.348,706.879,900.26
EBITDA 1,2841,1631,3701,614.381,835.652,087.252,373.332,698.623,068.513,489.083,967.31
EBIT 1,1289841,1821,394.881,586.061,803.462,050.642,331.712,651.303,014.693,427.89
Tax Rate 30.39%7.61%10.38%17.11%23.36%13.80%17.11%17.11%17.11%17.11%17.11%
EBIAT 785.17909.151,059.361,156.241,215.491,554.561,699.821,932.802,197.712,498.942,841.45
Depreciation 156179188219.50249.58283.79322.69366.92417.21474.39539.41
Accounts Receivable --103-59-51.82-85.64-97.38-110.72-125.90-143.16-162.78-185.09
Inventories --5327-95.08-62.24-70.77-80.47-91.50-104.04-118.30-134.51
Accounts Payable -24-3559.6828.6032.5236.9842.0547.8154.3761.82
Capital Expenditure -312-296-209-350.72-189-208-515.60-586.27-666.62-757.99-861.89
UFCF 629.17660.15971.36937.80947.011,249.281,352.691,538.101,748.911,988.622,261.19
WACC
PV UFCF 1,020.61947.011,147.921,142.091,193.271,246.731,302.601,360.96
SUM PV UFCF 6,797.14

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.83
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,306.41
Terminal Value 33,768.88
Present Value of Terminal Value 22,119.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 28,916.55
Net Debt 1,308
Equity Value 27,608.55
Shares Outstanding 153
Equity Value Per Share 180.45