Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO.TO)

$72.69

+0.63 (+0.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 37.87 | 72.69 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 27,45233,29732,19420,54835,58040,468.7146,029.1352,353.5659,546.9667,728.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,8324,6903,7379295,3144,489.265,106.085,807.666,605.647,513.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -----4,489.265,106.085,807.666,605.647,513.25
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,1959881,7187712,1531,817.862,067.632,351.722,674.853,042.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,7122,5292,6991,9193,8693,728.874,241.224,823.975,486.796,240.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,5001,8381,9121,8341,7912,499.532,842.973,233.593,677.894,183.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,8773,6884,2603,1535,1845,531.736,291.797,156.288,139.569,257.94
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -993-1,491-1,636-868-1,108-1,660.44-1,888.59-2,148.08-2,443.23-2,778.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 72.69
Beta 1.940
Diluted Shares Outstanding 713.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.676
Total Debt 5,323
Total Equity 51,842.51
Total Capital 57,165.51
Debt Weighting 9.31
Equity Weighting 90.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 27,45233,29732,19420,54835,58040,468.7146,029.1352,353.5659,546.9667,728.74
EBITDA 2,8324,6903,7379295,3144,489.265,106.085,807.666,605.647,513.25
EBIT -----4,489.265,106.085,807.666,605.647,513.25
Tax Rate 15.81%24.70%-7.53%22.88%24.49%16.07%16.07%16.07%16.07%16.07%
EBIAT -----3,767.824,285.524,874.355,544.096,305.85
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable -183-170780-1,950140.13-512.35-582.75-662.82-753.89
Inventories --338-747843-708.53-343.44-390.63-444.30-505.34
Accounts Payable --189572-1,1072,031347.73760.06864.49983.281,118.38
Capital Expenditure -993-1,491-1,636-868-1,108-1,660.44-1,888.59-2,148.08-2,443.23-2,778.93
UFCF -----1,886.702,301.212,617.392,977.023,386.07
WACC
PV UFCF 1,691.041,848.681,884.631,921.291,958.66
SUM PV UFCF 9,304.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,453.79
Terminal Value 36,089.75
Present Value of Terminal Value 20,875.97

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 30,180.27
Net Debt 3,170
Equity Value 27,010.27
Shares Outstanding 713.20
Equity Value Per Share 37.87