Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO.TO)

$55.45

-1.64 (-2.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 48.26 | 55.45 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 27,45233,29732,19420,54835,66240,597.5546,216.1852,612.4259,893.8868,183.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,8324,6903,7379295,2604,488.475,109.665,816.836,621.877,538.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 6603,1812,139-2,3442,287.921,105.051,257.991,432.091,630.291,855.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,1721,5091,5983,2732,972.083,383.423,851.674,384.744,991.585,682.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,1959881,7187712,1531,822.512,074.752,361.892,688.773,060.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,7122,5292,6991,9193,8693,738.724,256.154,845.195,515.766,279.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,5001,8381,9121,8341,7912,506.552,853.453,248.363,697.934,209.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,8773,6884,2603,1535,1845,546.626,314.267,188.148,182.979,315.48
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -993-1,491-1,636-868-1,108-1,665.15-1,895.60-2,157.95-2,456.61-2,796.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 55.45
Beta 1.899
Diluted Shares Outstanding 712.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.78%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.841
Total Debt 5,323
Total Equity 39,500.16
Total Capital 44,823.16
Debt Weighting 11.88
Equity Weighting 88.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 27,45233,29732,19420,54835,66240,597.5546,216.1852,612.4259,893.8868,183.08
EBITDA 2,8324,6903,7379295,2604,488.475,109.665,816.836,621.877,538.32
EBIT 6603,1812,139-2,3442,287.921,105.051,257.991,432.091,630.291,855.92
Tax Rate 15.81%24.70%-7.53%22.88%24.49%16.07%16.07%16.07%16.07%16.07%
EBIAT 555.672,395.332,300-1,807.641,727.61927.471,055.831,201.951,368.301,557.67
Depreciation 2,1721,5091,5983,2732,972.083,383.423,851.674,384.744,991.585,682.40
Accounts Receivable -183-170780-1,950130.28-517.43-589.04-670.57-763.37
Inventories --338-747843-715.55-346.90-394.91-449.57-511.79
Accounts Payable --189572-1,1072,031362.62767.64873.88994.831,132.51
Capital Expenditure -993-1,491-1,636-868-1,108-1,665.15-1,895.60-2,157.95-2,456.61-2,796.60
UFCF 1,734.672,069.332,590348.363,715.692,423.092,915.213,318.663,777.964,300.82
WACC
PV UFCF 2,168.112,333.982,377.412,421.652,466.72
SUM PV UFCF 11,767.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,386.84
Terminal Value 44,947.13
Present Value of Terminal Value 25,779.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 37,547.11
Net Debt 3,170
Equity Value 34,377.11
Shares Outstanding 712.36
Equity Value Per Share 48.26