Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Innospec Inc. (IOSP)

$87.44

-1.07 (-1.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 57.40 | 87.44 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,306.801,476.901,513.301,193.101,483.401,552.581,624.981,700.761,780.071,863.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 186.70188.10202.8087.50178.60185.68194.34203.40212.89222.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 136.30138.50155.2041.50135.90132.60138.78145.26152.03159.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 50.4049.6047.604642.7053.0855.5658.1560.8663.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 90.20123.1075.70105.30141.80119.94125.53131.38137.51143.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 244.50279.70292221.40284.50293.99307.70322.05337.07352.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 209.80248244.60220277.60267.55280.03293.08306.75321.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 117.90126.8012298.70148.70136.52142.89149.55156.53163.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -32.20-30.10-31-29.70-39.10-36.25-37.95-39.72-41.57-43.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 87.44
Beta 1.139
Diluted Shares Outstanding 24.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 30.73
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.92%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.200
Total Debt 35.60
Total Equity 2,166.68
Total Capital 2,202.28
Debt Weighting 1.62
Equity Weighting 98.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,306.801,476.901,513.301,193.101,483.401,552.581,624.981,700.761,780.071,863.09
EBITDA 186.70188.10202.8087.50178.60185.68194.34203.40212.89222.82
EBIT 136.30138.50155.2041.50135.90132.60138.78145.26152.03159.12
Tax Rate 51.76%35.41%25.40%27.71%30.73%34.20%34.20%34.20%34.20%34.20%
EBIAT 65.7689.46115.783094.1487.2591.3295.58100.03104.70
Depreciation 50.4049.6047.604642.7053.0855.5658.1560.8663.70
Accounts Receivable --35.20-12.3070.60-63.10-9.49-13.71-14.35-15.02-15.72
Inventories --38.203.4024.60-57.6010.05-12.48-13.06-13.67-14.31
Accounts Payable -8.90-4.80-23.3050-12.186.376.666.977.30
Capital Expenditure -32.20-30.10-31-29.70-39.10-36.25-37.95-39.72-41.57-43.51
UFCF 83.9644.46118.68118.2027.0492.4689.1193.2797.61102.17
WACC
PV UFCF 84.7474.8671.8268.9066.10
SUM PV UFCF 366.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.10
Free cash flow (t + 1) 104.21
Terminal Value 1,467.75
Present Value of Terminal Value 949.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,316
Net Debt -106.20
Equity Value 1,422.20
Shares Outstanding 24.78
Equity Value Per Share 57.40