Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones... (IRS)

$3.77

-0.11 (-2.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -129.46 | 3.77 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 74,17233,08859,41095,79312,97812,943.9312,909.9412,876.0512,842.2412,808.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17,13426,287-4,45857,732-1,1083,799.623,789.643,779.693,769.773,759.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 12,41922,550-11,96141,464-1,7502,448.032,441.602,435.192,428.802,422.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,7153,7377,50316,2686421,351.591,348.041,344.501,340.971,337.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 39,14267,286104,362113,1705,09715,253.2515,213.2115,173.2615,133.4315,093.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 16,74015,34622,93437,4508,6405,519.825,505.335,490.875,476.465,462.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5,5093,8621,5136,999186786.62784.55782.49780.44778.39
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18,05114,61718,56129,6725,1034,402.244,390.694,379.164,367.664,356.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,130-2,506-7,201-8,947-359-932.50-930.05-927.61-925.17-922.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.77
Beta 1.496
Diluted Shares Outstanding 58.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -327.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.758
Total Debt 63,039
Total Equity 221.68
Total Capital 63,260.68
Debt Weighting 99.65
Equity Weighting 0.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 74,17233,08859,41095,79312,97812,943.9312,909.9412,876.0512,842.2412,808.53
EBITDA 17,13426,287-4,45857,732-1,1083,799.623,789.643,779.693,769.773,759.87
EBIT 12,41922,550-11,96141,464-1,7502,448.032,441.602,435.192,428.802,422.42
Tax Rate 40.79%-72.61%11.72%-13.86%-327.86%-72.36%-72.36%-72.36%-72.36%-72.36%
EBIAT 7,353.8338,922.88-10,558.6747,208.99-7,487.604,219.504,208.424,197.374,186.354,175.36
Depreciation 4,7153,7377,50316,2686421,351.591,348.041,344.501,340.971,337.45
Accounts Receivable -1,394-7,588-14,51628,8103,120.1814.4914.4514.4214.38
Inventories -1,6472,349-5,4866,813-600.622.072.062.052.05
Accounts Payable --3,4343,94411,111-24,569-700.76-11.56-11.53-11.50-11.47
Capital Expenditure -3,130-2,506-7,201-8,947-359-932.50-930.05-927.61-925.17-922.74
UFCF 8,938.8339,760.88-11,551.6745,638.993,849.406,457.404,631.414,619.254,607.124,595.03
WACC
PV UFCF 5,853.333,805.443,440.403,110.372,812.01
SUM PV UFCF 19,021.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.32
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,686.93
Terminal Value 56,333.25
Present Value of Terminal Value 34,474.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 53,495.70
Net Debt 61,108
Equity Value -7,612.30
Shares Outstanding 58.80
Equity Value Per Share -129.46