Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD)

$11.87

+0.39 (+3.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.41 | 11.87 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 298.28346.64428.41389.52413.75451.97493.72539.32589.14643.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -65.95-230.4263.69141.90233.3317.2718.8720.6122.5124.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -80.57-244.6458.11138.34231.816.797.428.118.869.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 14.6214.225.583.561.5210.4811.4412.5013.6614.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 221.42173.17177.02362.56620.13369.23403.34440.59481.29525.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 82.1680.95117.25122.35114.04124.05135.51148.03161.70176.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.730.851.060.961.021.111.221.331.451.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 15.9618.125.490.660.9311.0812.1013.2214.4415.77
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.21-8.62-7.19-1.84-0.27-5.53-6.04-6.59-7.20-7.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.87
Beta 1.050
Diluted Shares Outstanding 164.42
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -163.36
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.55%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.797
Total Debt 475.80
Total Equity 1,951.64
Total Capital 2,427.44
Debt Weighting 19.60
Equity Weighting 80.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 298.28346.64428.41389.52413.75451.97493.72539.32589.14643.56
EBITDA -65.95-230.4263.69141.90233.3317.2718.8720.6122.5124.59
EBIT -80.57-244.6458.11138.34231.816.797.428.118.869.68
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%63.52%2.47%-163.36%-19.48%-19.48%-19.48%-19.48%-19.48%
EBIAT -80.57-244.6421.20134.93610.488.128.879.6910.5811.56
Depreciation 14.6214.225.583.561.5210.4811.4412.5013.6614.92
Accounts Receivable -1.21-36.30-5.118.31-10.01-11.46-12.52-13.67-14.94
Inventories --0.12-0.200.10-0.06-0.09-0.10-0.11-0.12-0.13
Accounts Payable -2.17-12.64-4.830.2710.141.021.121.221.33
Capital Expenditure -4.21-8.62-7.19-1.84-0.27-5.53-6.04-6.59-7.20-7.87
UFCF -70.16-235.79-29.54126.81620.2713.103.744.084.464.87
WACC
PV UFCF 12.183.233.283.333.38
SUM PV UFCF 25.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4.97
Terminal Value 89.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 62.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 87.61
Net Debt -144.33
Equity Value 231.94
Shares Outstanding 164.42
Equity Value Per Share 1.41