Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Innovative Solutions and Support, I... (ISSC)

$9

+0.17 (+1.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.63 | 9 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 16.7913.8517.5721.6023.0425.2927.7630.4633.4336.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5.27-3.152.303.554.412.903.183.493.834.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4.82-3.591.853.123.982.282.502.743.013.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.450.440.450.430.430.620.680.750.820.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 24.6820.3922.4212.608.2726.1028.6531.4434.5037.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4.493.452.434.374.055.225.736.296.917.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4.184.284.474.294.556.116.717.368.088.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.321.531.080.790.621.591.741.912.102.31
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.15-2.55-0.08-0.12-0.34-1.10-1.21-1.33-1.46-1.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9
Beta 1.063
Diluted Shares Outstanding 17.23
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -27.35
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.775
Total Debt 0.04
Total Equity 155.04
Total Capital 155.08
Debt Weighting 0.03
Equity Weighting 99.97
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 16.7913.8517.5721.6023.0425.2927.7630.4633.4336.69
EBITDA 5.27-3.152.303.554.412.903.183.493.834.20
EBIT 4.82-3.591.853.123.982.282.502.743.013.30
Tax Rate 5.15%-1.77%0.10%-10.43%-27.35%-6.86%-6.86%-6.86%-6.86%-6.86%
EBIAT 4.57-3.651.853.445.072.432.672.933.223.53
Depreciation 0.450.440.450.430.430.620.680.750.820.90
Accounts Receivable -1.041.02-1.940.32-1.18-0.51-0.56-0.61-0.67
Inventories --0.10-0.190.18-0.25-1.57-0.60-0.65-0.72-0.79
Accounts Payable -0.21-0.45-0.29-0.170.970.150.170.190.20
Capital Expenditure -0.15-2.55-0.08-0.12-0.34-1.10-1.21-1.33-1.46-1.60
UFCF 4.86-4.622.601.715.060.171.191.311.431.57
WACC
PV UFCF 0.161.011.021.021.03
SUM PV UFCF 4.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.77
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1.61
Terminal Value 23.71
Present Value of Terminal Value 15.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19.81
Net Debt -8.22
Equity Value 28.04
Shares Outstanding 17.23
Equity Value Per Share 1.63