Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

IVU Traffic Technologies AG (IVU.DE)

17.1 €

-0.52 (-2.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 14.67 | 17.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 71.0677.8088.7992.03103.63113.95125.30137.78151.51166.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 7.378.1312.6114.9916.1715.2516.7718.4420.2822.30
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 6.136.7210.3612.4613.6412.6813.9415.3316.8618.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.241.412.242.532.532.572.833.113.423.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 11.5221.3029.2531.1041.4634.2637.6741.4345.5650.09
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.331.201.121.641.161.411.551.701.872.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.043.277.574.733.835.576.126.737.408.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.99-0.77-1.05-1.48-1.34-1.48-1.62-1.79-1.96-2.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.1
Beta 1.254
Diluted Shares Outstanding 17.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 31.10
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.450
Total Debt 8.93
Total Equity 300.91
Total Capital 309.83
Debt Weighting 2.88
Equity Weighting 97.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 71.0677.8088.7992.03103.63113.95125.30137.78151.51166.61
EBITDA 7.378.1312.6114.9916.1715.2516.7718.4420.2822.30
EBIT 6.136.7210.3612.4613.6412.6813.9415.3316.8618.54
Tax Rate 16.44%5.65%-4.90%17.20%31.10%13.10%13.10%13.10%13.10%13.10%
EBIAT 5.126.3410.8710.329.4011.0212.1213.3214.6516.11
Depreciation 1.241.412.242.532.532.572.833.113.423.76
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --0.870.09-0.530.49-0.25-0.14-0.15-0.17-0.19
Accounts Payable -1.244.29-2.84-0.901.740.550.610.670.74
Capital Expenditure -0.99-0.77-1.05-1.48-1.34-1.48-1.62-1.79-1.96-2.16
UFCF 5.377.3416.44810.1713.6013.7315.1016.6118.26
WACC
PV UFCF 12.4511.5211.6011.6811.76
SUM PV UFCF 59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.20
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18.63
Terminal Value 258.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 166.60

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 225.60
Net Debt -32.53
Equity Value 258.14
Shares Outstanding 17.60
Equity Value Per Share 14.67