Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
init innovation in traffic systems ... (IXX.DE)
25.4 €
-0.10 (-0.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 130.55 | 135.71 | 156.46 | 180.67 | 176.66 | 191.01 | 206.53 | 223.30 | 241.44 | 261.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 12.95 | 11.01 | 23.48 | 28.92 | 27.35 | 24.65 | 26.65 | 28.82 | 31.16 | 33.69 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 8.75 | 6.44 | 16.27 | 19.67 | 17.51 | 16.29 | 17.61 | 19.04 | 20.59 | 22.26 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.20 | 4.57 | 7.21 | 9.25 | 9.85 | 8.36 | 9.04 | 9.77 | 10.57 | 11.43 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 19.79 | 20.65 | 26.21 | 32.25 | 28.20 | 30.92 | 33.43 | 36.15 | 39.08 | 42.26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 25.22 | 26.83 | 27.18 | 32.63 | 33.64 | 35.74 | 38.64 | 41.78 | 45.18 | 48.85 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 18.14 | 15.60 | 8.56 | 7.54 | 6.93 | 14.89 | 16.09 | 17.40 | 18.82 | 20.34 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -9.74 | -2.76 | -5.65 | -7.15 | -3.68 | -7.31 | -7.91 | -8.55 | -9.25 | -10 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 25.4 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.094 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9.96 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.96 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.67% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.761 |
| Total Debt | 44.96 |
| Total Equity | 252.91 |
| Total Capital | 297.87 |
| Debt Weighting | 15.09 |
| Equity Weighting | 84.91 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 130.55 | 135.71 | 156.46 | 180.67 | 176.66 | 191.01 | 206.53 | 223.30 | 241.44 | 261.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 12.95 | 11.01 | 23.48 | 28.92 | 27.35 | 24.65 | 26.65 | 28.82 | 31.16 | 33.69 |
| EBIT | 8.75 | 6.44 | 16.27 | 19.67 | 17.51 | 16.29 | 17.61 | 19.04 | 20.59 | 22.26 |
| Tax Rate | 53.44% | 55.58% | 25.63% | 20.35% | 24.96% | 35.99% | 35.99% | 35.99% | 35.99% | 35.99% |
| EBIAT | 4.07 | 2.86 | 12.10 | 15.67 | 13.14 | 10.43 | 11.27 | 12.19 | 13.18 | 14.25 |
| Depreciation | 4.20 | 4.57 | 7.21 | 9.25 | 9.85 | 8.36 | 9.04 | 9.77 | 10.57 | 11.43 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -1.60 | -0.35 | -5.45 | -1.01 | -2.10 | -2.90 | -3.14 | -3.39 | -3.67 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.54 | -7.04 | -1.02 | -0.61 | 7.95 | 1.21 | 1.31 | 1.41 | 1.53 |
| Capital Expenditure | -9.74 | -2.76 | -5.65 | -7.15 | -3.68 | -7.31 | -7.91 | -8.55 | -9.25 | -10 |
| UFCF | -1.46 | 0.53 | 6.26 | 11.30 | 17.68 | 17.32 | 10.71 | 11.58 | 12.52 | 13.54 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 16.09 | 9.24 | 9.27 | 9.31 | 9.35 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 53.26 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.69 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 13.81 |
| Terminal Value | 242.71 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 167.58 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 220.83 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 16.80 |
| Equity Value | 204.03 |
| Shares Outstanding | 9.96 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 20.49 |