Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

init innovation in traffic systems ... (IXX.DE)

25.4 €

-0.10 (-0.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 20.49 | 25.4 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 130.55135.71156.46180.67176.66191.01206.53223.30241.44261.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12.9511.0123.4828.9227.3524.6526.6528.8231.1633.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8.756.4416.2719.6717.5116.2917.6119.0420.5922.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.204.577.219.259.858.369.049.7710.5711.43
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 19.7920.6526.2132.2528.2030.9233.4336.1539.0842.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 25.2226.8327.1832.6333.6435.7438.6441.7845.1848.85
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.1415.608.567.546.9314.8916.0917.4018.8220.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -9.74-2.76-5.65-7.15-3.68-7.31-7.91-8.55-9.25-10
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.4
Beta 1.094
Diluted Shares Outstanding 9.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.96
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.761
Total Debt 44.96
Total Equity 252.91
Total Capital 297.87
Debt Weighting 15.09
Equity Weighting 84.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 130.55135.71156.46180.67176.66191.01206.53223.30241.44261.05
EBITDA 12.9511.0123.4828.9227.3524.6526.6528.8231.1633.69
EBIT 8.756.4416.2719.6717.5116.2917.6119.0420.5922.26
Tax Rate 53.44%55.58%25.63%20.35%24.96%35.99%35.99%35.99%35.99%35.99%
EBIAT 4.072.8612.1015.6713.1410.4311.2712.1913.1814.25
Depreciation 4.204.577.219.259.858.369.049.7710.5711.43
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --1.60-0.35-5.45-1.01-2.10-2.90-3.14-3.39-3.67
Accounts Payable --2.54-7.04-1.02-0.617.951.211.311.411.53
Capital Expenditure -9.74-2.76-5.65-7.15-3.68-7.31-7.91-8.55-9.25-10
UFCF -1.460.536.2611.3017.6817.3210.7111.5812.5213.54
WACC
PV UFCF 16.099.249.279.319.35
SUM PV UFCF 53.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 13.81
Terminal Value 242.71
Present Value of Terminal Value 167.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 220.83
Net Debt 16.80
Equity Value 204.03
Shares Outstanding 9.96
Equity Value Per Share 20.49