Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAG.TO)

$1.31

-0.02 (-1.50%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 0.59 | 1.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	94.92	97.23	160.25	151.47	142.50	162.40	185.07	210.91	240.35	273.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	21.53	28.91	90.64	69.14	40.81	59.52	67.83	77.30	88.09	100.39
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2.17	14.33	75.48	47.98	20.56	35.80	40.80	46.50	52.99	60.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	19.36	14.57	15.16	21.16	20.25	23.72	27.03	30.80	35.10	40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	6.27	10.92	38.91	40.37	25.21	28.08	32.01	36.47	41.57	47.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	12.14	12.70	12.53	14.55	16.24	17.75	20.23	23.06	26.28	29.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	11.74	10.37	11.64	10.39	14.22	15.31	17.45	19.88	22.66	25.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-28.99	-32.23	-34.75	-34.23	-44.16	-45.14	-51.44	-58.62	-66.80	-76.13
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.31
Beta	1.001
Diluted Shares Outstanding	73.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.20
After-tax Cost of Debt	29.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.165
Total Debt	7
Total Equity	96.28
Total Capital	103.29
Debt Weighting	6.78
Equity Weighting	93.22
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	94.92	97.23	160.25	151.47	142.50	162.40	185.07	210.91	240.35	273.91
EBITDA	21.53	28.91	90.64	69.14	40.81	59.52	67.83	77.30	88.09	100.39
EBIT	2.17	14.33	75.48	47.98	20.56	35.80	40.80	46.50	52.99	60.39
Tax Rate	-0.26%	120.47%	16.74%	18.84%	20.20%	35.20%	35.20%	35.20%	35.20%	35.20%
EBIAT	2.18	-2.93	62.85	38.94	16.41	23.20	26.44	30.13	34.34	39.13
Depreciation	19.36	14.57	15.16	21.16	20.25	23.72	27.03	30.80	35.10	40
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-0.56	0.17	-2.02	-1.69	-1.52	-2.48	-2.82	-3.22	-3.67
Accounts Payable	-	-1.38	1.27	-1.25	3.83	1.09	2.14	2.44	2.78	3.16
Capital Expenditure	-28.99	-32.23	-34.75	-34.23	-44.16	-45.14	-51.44	-58.62	-66.80	-76.13
UFCF	-7.46	-22.53	44.69	22.60	-5.37	1.36	1.69	1.92	2.19	2.50
WACC
PV UFCF						1.23	1.38	1.42	1.47	1.51
SUM PV UFCF										7.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.54
Free cash flow (t + 1)	2.55
Terminal Value	29.86
Present Value of Terminal Value	18.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	25.11
Net Debt	-18.20
Equity Value	43.31
Shares Outstanding	73.50
Equity Value Per Share	0.59