Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. (JMT.LS)

24.08 €

+0.32 (+1.35%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 32.53 | 24.08 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	16,276.15	17,336.71	18,638.22	19,293.50	20,889	22,236.79	23,671.55	25,198.88	26,824.76	28,555.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	883.66	918.45	1,392.82	1,330.15	1,523	1,440.28	1,533.21	1,632.13	1,737.44	1,849.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	552.75	554.72	677.45	596.36	778	758.09	807.01	859.08	914.51	973.51
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	330.91	363.74	715.37	733.79	745	682.19	726.20	773.06	822.94	876.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	681.33	545.99	929.31	1,041.39	1,527	1,113.14	1,184.96	1,261.41	1,342.80	1,429.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	847.06	974.44	1,044.19	978.71	1,114	1,193.36	1,270.36	1,352.33	1,439.58	1,532.47
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,913.20	3,039.81	3,320.96	3,255.76	3,655	3,896.89	4,148.33	4,415.98	4,700.91	5,004.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-661.69	-719.76	-575.53	-513.70	-584	-745.52	-793.62	-844.83	-899.34	-957.36
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 24.08
Beta	0.430
Diluted Shares Outstanding	628.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	28.99
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.720
Total Debt	2,847
Total Equity	15,132.70
Total Capital	17,979.70
Debt Weighting	15.83
Equity Weighting	84.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	16,276.15	17,336.71	18,638.22	19,293.50	20,889	22,236.79	23,671.55	25,198.88	26,824.76	28,555.54
EBITDA	883.66	918.45	1,392.82	1,330.15	1,523	1,440.28	1,533.21	1,632.13	1,737.44	1,849.55
EBIT	552.75	554.72	677.45	596.36	778	758.09	807.01	859.08	914.51	973.51
Tax Rate	31.77%	28.61%	29.02%	31.95%	28.99%	30.07%	30.07%	30.07%	30.07%	30.07%
EBIAT	377.12	396	480.89	405.84	552.48	530.16	564.36	600.78	639.54	680.80
Depreciation	330.91	363.74	715.37	733.79	745	682.19	726.20	773.06	822.94	876.03
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-127.38	-69.75	65.48	-135.29	-79.36	-77	-81.97	-87.25	-92.88
Accounts Payable	-	126.61	281.15	-65.20	399.24	241.89	251.43	267.66	284.93	303.31
Capital Expenditure	-661.69	-719.76	-575.53	-513.70	-584	-745.52	-793.62	-844.83	-899.34	-957.36
UFCF	46.35	39.20	832.13	626.21	977.42	629.35	671.38	714.70	760.81	809.90
WACC
PV UFCF						597.16	604.46	610.55	616.71	622.92
SUM PV UFCF										3,051.80

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.39
Free cash flow (t + 1)	826.10
Terminal Value	24,368.63
Present Value of Terminal Value	18,742.78

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	21,794.59
Net Debt	1,353
Equity Value	20,441.59
Shares Outstanding	628.43
Equity Value Per Share	32.53