Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

KeyCorp (KEY)

$17.5

+0.27 (+1.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 56.42 | 17.5 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,0636,1576,1806,4907,0387,308.687,589.777,881.678,184.808,499.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,9533,5613,5982,3323,5953,680.273,821.813,968.804,121.444,279.95
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,5463,1793,3572,2213,5633,402.813,533.683,669.583,810.713,957.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 40738224111132277.46288.14299.22310.73322.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 5,3643,3922,56419,25812,3849,614.489,984.2510,368.2410,76711,181.10
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8,3518,60710,14711,16412,30411,526.6811,969.9912,430.3612,908.4213,404.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -112-99-85-63-66-98.51-102.30-106.23-110.32-114.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.5
Beta 1.331
Diluted Shares Outstanding 974.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.33
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.172
Total Debt 12,630
Total Equity 17,059.12
Total Capital 29,689.12
Debt Weighting 42.54
Equity Weighting 57.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,0636,1576,1806,4907,0387,308.687,589.777,881.678,184.808,499.58
EBITDA 2,9533,5613,5982,3323,5953,680.273,821.813,968.804,121.444,279.95
EBIT 2,5463,1793,3572,2213,5633,402.813,533.683,669.583,810.713,957.27
Tax Rate 32.78%15.30%15.08%13.69%19.33%19.24%19.24%19.24%19.24%19.24%
EBIAT 1,711.422,692.702,850.631,916.972,874.272,748.242,853.942,963.703,077.683,196.05
Depreciation 40738224111132277.46288.14299.22310.73322.68
Accounts Receivable --256-1,540-1,017-1,140777.32-443.31-460.36-478.07-496.45
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -112-99-85-63-66-98.51-102.30-106.23-110.32-114.56
UFCF 2,006.422,719.701,466.63947.971,700.273,704.522,596.462,696.322,800.022,907.71
WACC
PV UFCF 3,492.522,307.792,259.402,212.032,165.65
SUM PV UFCF 12,437.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,965.86
Terminal Value 72,871.34
Present Value of Terminal Value 54,274.26

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 66,711.66
Net Debt 11,717
Equity Value 54,994.66
Shares Outstanding 974.81
Equity Value Per Share 56.42