Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
KeyCorp (KEY)
$17.5
+0.27 (+1.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 6,063 | 6,157 | 6,180 | 6,490 | 7,038 | 7,308.68 | 7,589.77 | 7,881.67 | 8,184.80 | 8,499.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2,953 | 3,561 | 3,598 | 2,332 | 3,595 | 3,680.27 | 3,821.81 | 3,968.80 | 4,121.44 | 4,279.95 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2,546 | 3,179 | 3,357 | 2,221 | 3,563 | 3,402.81 | 3,533.68 | 3,669.58 | 3,810.71 | 3,957.27 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 407 | 382 | 241 | 111 | 32 | 277.46 | 288.14 | 299.22 | 310.73 | 322.68 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 5,364 | 3,392 | 2,564 | 19,258 | 12,384 | 9,614.48 | 9,984.25 | 10,368.24 | 10,767 | 11,181.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 8,351 | 8,607 | 10,147 | 11,164 | 12,304 | 11,526.68 | 11,969.99 | 12,430.36 | 12,908.42 | 13,404.88 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -112 | -99 | -85 | -63 | -66 | -98.51 | -102.30 | -106.23 | -110.32 | -114.56 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.5 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.331 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 974.81 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.33 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.89% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.172 |
| Total Debt | 12,630 |
| Total Equity | 17,059.12 |
| Total Capital | 29,689.12 |
| Debt Weighting | 42.54 |
| Equity Weighting | 57.46 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 6,063 | 6,157 | 6,180 | 6,490 | 7,038 | 7,308.68 | 7,589.77 | 7,881.67 | 8,184.80 | 8,499.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2,953 | 3,561 | 3,598 | 2,332 | 3,595 | 3,680.27 | 3,821.81 | 3,968.80 | 4,121.44 | 4,279.95 |
| EBIT | 2,546 | 3,179 | 3,357 | 2,221 | 3,563 | 3,402.81 | 3,533.68 | 3,669.58 | 3,810.71 | 3,957.27 |
| Tax Rate | 32.78% | 15.30% | 15.08% | 13.69% | 19.33% | 19.24% | 19.24% | 19.24% | 19.24% | 19.24% |
| EBIAT | 1,711.42 | 2,692.70 | 2,850.63 | 1,916.97 | 2,874.27 | 2,748.24 | 2,853.94 | 2,963.70 | 3,077.68 | 3,196.05 |
| Depreciation | 407 | 382 | 241 | 111 | 32 | 277.46 | 288.14 | 299.22 | 310.73 | 322.68 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -256 | -1,540 | -1,017 | -1,140 | 777.32 | -443.31 | -460.36 | -478.07 | -496.45 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -112 | -99 | -85 | -63 | -66 | -98.51 | -102.30 | -106.23 | -110.32 | -114.56 |
| UFCF | 2,006.42 | 2,719.70 | 1,466.63 | 947.97 | 1,700.27 | 3,704.52 | 2,596.46 | 2,696.32 | 2,800.02 | 2,907.71 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 3,492.52 | 2,307.79 | 2,259.40 | 2,212.03 | 2,165.65 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 12,437.40 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.07 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,965.86 |
| Terminal Value | 72,871.34 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 54,274.26 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 66,711.66 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 11,717 |
| Equity Value | 54,994.66 |
| Shares Outstanding | 974.81 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 56.42 |