Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kinepolis Group NV (KIN.BR)

37.88 €

-1.80 (-4.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 6.17 | 37.88 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 355.43475.88551.48176.28266.39288.28311.96337.58365.32395.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 103.51116.12168.4013.8875.4469.3375.0381.1987.8695.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 72.4777.0897.67-66.56-5.598.339.019.7510.5511.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 31.0439.0470.7380.4481.0361.0166.0271.4477.3183.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 157.4065.3872.4733.0175.3068.1273.7279.7786.3393.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4.754.925.853.874.984.324.675.065.475.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 82.9283.46108.9135.87111.5470.8276.6482.9489.7597.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -32.770.505.94-45.26-17.31-23.18-25.09-27.15-29.38-31.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 37.88
Beta 1.873
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.537
Total Debt 940.63
Total Equity 1,023.53
Total Capital 1,964.16
Debt Weighting 47.89
Equity Weighting 52.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 355.43475.88551.48176.28266.39288.28311.96337.58365.32395.33
EBITDA 103.51116.12168.4013.8875.4469.3375.0381.1987.8695.08
EBIT 72.4777.0897.67-66.56-5.598.339.019.7510.5511.42
Tax Rate 24.16%29.06%29.70%24.90%27.24%27.01%27.01%27.01%27.01%27.01%
EBIAT 54.9654.6868.67-49.99-4.076.086.587.127.708.33
Depreciation 31.0439.0470.7380.4481.0361.0166.0271.4477.3183.66
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --0.17-0.931.99-1.120.66-0.35-0.38-0.42-0.45
Accounts Payable -0.5425.45-73.0475.67-40.725.826.306.817.37
Capital Expenditure -32.770.505.94-45.26-17.31-23.18-25.09-27.15-29.38-31.79
UFCF 53.2394.59169.86-85.86134.213.8452.9757.3262.0367.13
WACC
PV UFCF 3.5745.7445.9946.2446.50
SUM PV UFCF 188.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.62
Free cash flow (t + 1) 68.47
Terminal Value 1,218.33
Present Value of Terminal Value 843.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,031.95
Net Debt 865.34
Equity Value 166.62
Shares Outstanding 27.02
Equity Value Per Share 6.17