Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Koppers Holdings Inc. (KOP)
$41.02
+0.57 (+1.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,710.20 | 1,772.80 | 1,669.10 | 1,678.60 | 1,980.50 | 2,061.53 | 2,145.87 | 2,233.67 | 2,325.05 | 2,420.18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 174.20 | 192.50 | 219.60 | 188.80 | 193.80 | 227.73 | 237.05 | 246.75 | 256.84 | 267.35 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 123.40 | 137.40 | 165.50 | 131.10 | 137.70 | 163.46 | 170.14 | 177.10 | 184.35 | 191.89 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 50.80 | 55.10 | 54.10 | 57.70 | 56.10 | 64.28 | 66.91 | 69.64 | 72.49 | 75.46 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 40.60 | 33 | 38.50 | 45.50 | 33.30 | 45.08 | 46.93 | 48.85 | 50.84 | 52.92 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 192.50 | 165.80 | 176.30 | 182.80 | 215.70 | 218.33 | 227.26 | 236.56 | 246.23 | 256.31 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 284.70 | 299.10 | 295.80 | 313.80 | 355.70 | 362.40 | 377.22 | 392.66 | 408.72 | 425.44 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 177.20 | 169.90 | 154.10 | 171.90 | 207.40 | 205.70 | 214.12 | 222.88 | 232 | 241.49 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -109.70 | -37.20 | -69.80 | -125 | -105.30 | -104.97 | -109.26 | -113.73 | -118.38 | -123.23 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 41.02 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.883 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 21.31 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 33.54 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.29% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.432 |
Total Debt | 904.50 |
Total Equity | 874.26 |
Total Capital | 1,778.76 |
Debt Weighting | 50.85 |
Equity Weighting | 49.15 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,710.20 | 1,772.80 | 1,669.10 | 1,678.60 | 1,980.50 | 2,061.53 | 2,145.87 | 2,233.67 | 2,325.05 | 2,420.18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 174.20 | 192.50 | 219.60 | 188.80 | 193.80 | 227.73 | 237.05 | 246.75 | 256.84 | 267.35 |
EBIT | 123.40 | 137.40 | 165.50 | 131.10 | 137.70 | 163.46 | 170.14 | 177.10 | 184.35 | 191.89 |
Tax Rate | 57.30% | 3.34% | 19.07% | 28.76% | 33.54% | 28.40% | 28.40% | 28.40% | 28.40% | 28.40% |
EBIAT | 52.69 | 132.81 | 133.93 | 93.39 | 91.51 | 117.03 | 121.82 | 126.80 | 131.99 | 137.39 |
Depreciation | 50.80 | 55.10 | 54.10 | 57.70 | 56.10 | 64.28 | 66.91 | 69.64 | 72.49 | 75.46 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 26.70 | -10.50 | -6.50 | -32.90 | -2.63 | -8.93 | -9.30 | -9.68 | -10.07 |
Inventories | - | -14.40 | 3.30 | -18 | -41.90 | -6.70 | -14.83 | -15.43 | -16.06 | -16.72 |
Accounts Payable | - | -7.30 | -15.80 | 17.80 | 35.50 | -1.70 | 8.42 | 8.76 | 9.12 | 9.49 |
Capital Expenditure | -109.70 | -37.20 | -69.80 | -125 | -105.30 | -104.97 | -109.26 | -113.73 | -118.38 | -123.23 |
UFCF | -6.21 | 155.71 | 95.23 | 19.39 | 3.01 | 65.32 | 64.12 | 66.74 | 69.47 | 72.32 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 60.33 | 54.70 | 52.59 | 50.56 | 48.61 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 266.78 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.27 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 73.76 |
Terminal Value | 1,176.46 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 790.74 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,057.53 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 871.20 |
Equity Value | 186.33 |
Shares Outstanding | 21.31 |
Equity Value Per Share | 8.74 |