Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Korian (KORI.PA)

7.4 €

-0.06 (-0.74%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -701.18 | 7.4 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,336.48	3,612.50	3,874.01	4,310.85	4,438.30	4,768.33	5,122.91	5,503.85	5,913.12	6,352.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	418.14	733.74	776.25	922.73	847.28	890.50	956.71	1,027.86	1,104.29	1,186.40
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	275.80	273.41	251.53	299.90	230.12	328.72	353.17	379.43	407.64	437.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	142.34	460.33	524.72	622.82	617.16	561.77	603.55	648.43	696.64	748.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	550.39	344.81	1,159.19	1,216.26	734.35	960.56	1,031.99	1,108.73	1,191.17	1,279.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	236	284	315	365	349.88	375.90	403.85	433.88	466.15	500.81
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	17.11	33.91	36.19	28.24	28.62	35.15	37.76	40.57	43.59	46.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	315.11	369.94	453.62	499.72	570.72	532.58	572.18	614.73	660.44	709.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-264.60	-310.60	-520.10	-538.62	-622.20	-538.51	-578.55	-621.58	-667.80	-717.46
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 7.4
Beta	1.047
Diluted Shares Outstanding	92.13
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	61.92
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.634
Total Debt	8,270.55
Total Equity	681.74
Total Capital	8,952.28
Debt Weighting	92.38
Equity Weighting	7.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,336.48	3,612.50	3,874.01	4,310.85	4,438.30	4,768.33	5,122.91	5,503.85	5,913.12	6,352.82
EBITDA	418.14	733.74	776.25	922.73	847.28	890.50	956.71	1,027.86	1,104.29	1,186.40
EBIT	275.80	273.41	251.53	299.90	230.12	328.72	353.17	379.43	407.64	437.96
Tax Rate	30.68%	34.66%	34.39%	28.26%	61.92%	37.98%	37.98%	37.98%	37.98%	37.98%
EBIAT	191.18	178.65	165.02	215.16	87.62	203.86	219.02	235.31	252.81	271.61
Depreciation	142.34	460.33	524.72	622.82	617.16	561.77	603.55	648.43	696.64	748.45
Accounts Receivable	-	-48	-31	-50	15.12	-26.02	-27.95	-30.03	-32.26	-34.66
Inventories	-	-16.80	-2.28	7.95	-0.39	-6.52	-2.61	-2.81	-3.02	-3.24
Accounts Payable	-	54.83	83.68	46.10	71	-38.14	39.60	42.55	45.71	49.11
Capital Expenditure	-264.60	-310.61	-520.10	-538.62	-622.20	-538.51	-578.55	-621.58	-667.80	-717.46
UFCF	68.92	318.41	220.04	303.41	168.31	156.45	253.05	271.87	292.09	313.81
WACC
PV UFCF						154.15	245.68	260.07	275.31	291.44
SUM PV UFCF										1,226.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	1.49
Free cash flow (t + 1)	320.08
Terminal Value	-62,761.33
Present Value of Terminal Value	-58,287.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-57,060.92
Net Debt	7,536.84
Equity Value	-64,597.75
Shares Outstanding	92.13
Equity Value Per Share	-701.18