Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)

$87.1

-0.61 (-0.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 77.78 | 87.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,541.261,627.221,753.641,568.861,787.401,862.201,940.132,021.322,105.912,194.04
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 666.41670.92768.53636.97775.02790.52823.60858.07893.98931.39
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 455.30445.66518.50385.67503.73518.66540.37562.98586.54611.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 211.10225.26250.03251.30271.29271.86283.23295.09307.44320.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 115.4721.4926.19121.5799.7988.0491.7295.5699.56103.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 201.70235.58254.93240.85269.92270.22281.53293.31305.59318.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 17.9621.2514.9712.0216.4318.6619.4420.2521.1021.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -109.33-117.64-140.96-62.27-126.09-124.34-129.54-134.96-140.61-146.49
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 87.1
Beta 1.392
Diluted Shares Outstanding 100.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.33
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.396
Total Debt 4,225.85
Total Equity 8,788.63
Total Capital 13,014.47
Debt Weighting 32.47
Equity Weighting 67.53
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,541.261,627.221,753.641,568.861,787.401,862.201,940.132,021.322,105.912,194.04
EBITDA 666.41670.92768.53636.97775.02790.52823.60858.07893.98931.39
EBIT 455.30445.66518.50385.67503.73518.66540.37562.98586.54611.09
Tax Rate 2.82%3.39%-1.15%1.88%2.33%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%1.85%
EBIAT 442.45430.57524.46378.42492509.05530.35552.55575.67599.76
Depreciation 211.10225.26250.03251.30271.29271.86283.23295.09307.44320.30
Accounts Receivable --33.88-19.3514.08-29.06-0.30-11.31-11.78-12.27-12.79
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -3.29-6.27-2.964.412.230.780.810.850.88
Capital Expenditure -109.33-117.64-140.96-62.27-126.09-124.34-129.54-134.96-140.61-146.49
UFCF 544.22507.60607.90578.57612.55658.50673.52701.70731.07761.66
WACC
PV UFCF 610.74579.36559.83540.96522.72
SUM PV UFCF 2,813.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.82
Free cash flow (t + 1) 776.90
Terminal Value 13,348.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 9,161.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 11,974.62
Net Debt 4,126.06
Equity Value 7,848.56
Shares Outstanding 100.90
Equity Value Per Share 77.78