Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Lawson Products, Inc. (LAWS)
$40.42
-0.73 (-1.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 305.91 | 349.64 | 370.78 | 351.59 | 417.73 | 453.22 | 491.72 | 533.49 | 578.81 | 627.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 17.49 | 14.73 | 16.17 | 28.14 | 21.13 | 24.79 | 26.90 | 29.18 | 31.66 | 34.35 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 10.72 | 7.87 | 10.28 | 21.44 | 12.79 | 16.03 | 17.39 | 18.87 | 20.47 | 22.21 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 6.77 | 6.86 | 5.89 | 6.70 | 8.34 | 8.76 | 9.51 | 10.31 | 11.19 | 12.14 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 4.42 | 11.88 | 5.50 | 28.39 | 4.18 | 13.96 | 15.15 | 16.43 | 17.83 | 19.34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 42.30 | 41.33 | 44.22 | 51.80 | 54.55 | 59.25 | 64.29 | 69.75 | 75.67 | 82.10 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 50.93 | 52.89 | 55.91 | 61.87 | 73.85 | 74.44 | 80.77 | 87.63 | 95.07 | 103.15 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 12.39 | 15.21 | 13.79 | 22.26 | 21.09 | 21.30 | 23.11 | 25.07 | 27.20 | 29.51 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.26 | -2.52 | -2.03 | -1.69 | -8.19 | -3.74 | -4.05 | -4.40 | -4.77 | -5.18 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 40.42 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.074 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9.35 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.08 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.33% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.290 |
| Total Debt | 27.21 |
| Total Equity | 377.93 |
| Total Capital | 405.13 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.72 |
| Equity Weighting | 93.28 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 305.91 | 349.64 | 370.78 | 351.59 | 417.73 | 453.22 | 491.72 | 533.49 | 578.81 | 627.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 17.49 | 14.73 | 16.17 | 28.14 | 21.13 | 24.79 | 26.90 | 29.18 | 31.66 | 34.35 |
| EBIT | 10.72 | 7.87 | 10.28 | 21.44 | 12.79 | 16.03 | 17.39 | 18.87 | 20.47 | 22.21 |
| Tax Rate | -194.12% | 9.46% | 25.36% | 27.29% | 21.08% | -22.19% | -22.19% | -22.19% | -22.19% | -22.19% |
| EBIAT | 31.52 | 7.13 | 7.67 | 15.59 | 10.09 | 19.59 | 21.25 | 23.06 | 25.01 | 27.14 |
| Depreciation | 6.77 | 6.86 | 5.89 | 6.70 | 8.34 | 8.76 | 9.51 | 10.31 | 11.19 | 12.14 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.97 | -2.89 | -7.58 | -2.74 | -4.71 | -5.03 | -5.46 | -5.92 | -6.43 |
| Inventories | - | -1.96 | -3.02 | -5.96 | -11.98 | -0.59 | -6.32 | -6.86 | -7.44 | -8.08 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.81 | -1.42 | 8.47 | -1.17 | 0.21 | 1.81 | 1.96 | 2.13 | 2.31 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.26 | -2.52 | -2.03 | -1.69 | -8.19 | -3.74 | -4.05 | -4.40 | -4.77 | -5.18 |
| UFCF | 37.03 | 13.28 | 4.22 | 15.53 | -5.66 | 19.53 | 17.16 | 18.61 | 20.20 | 21.91 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 17.93 | 14.47 | 14.42 | 14.36 | 14.31 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 75.50 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.89 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 22.35 |
| Terminal Value | 324.37 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 211.88 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 287.38 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 23.03 |
| Equity Value | 264.35 |
| Shares Outstanding | 9.35 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 28.27 |