Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lennar Corporation (LEN-B)

$60.59

+0.59 (+0.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -160.54 | 60.59 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12,646.3620,571.6322,259.5622,488.8527,130.6833,407.6441,136.8450,654.2662,373.6576,804.43
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,301.832,343.442,551.043,238.225,878.574,624.495,694.417,011.878,634.1310,631.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,235.502,252.262,458.843,143.675,792.624,482.895,520.066,797.188,369.7810,306.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 66.3291.1892.2094.5585.95141.59174.35214.69264.36325.52
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,708.311,562.621,449.732,916.532,963.403,969.904,888.386,019.357,411.999,126.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 522.531,041.84906.88938.081,296.851,484.751,828.262,251.252,772.103,413.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 10,860.8917,068.7018,093.6517,175.1519,169.4026,536.7632,676.3140,236.3149,545.3961,008.22
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 754.671,325.401,069.181,037.341,321.251,783.712,196.392,704.553,330.274,100.77
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -111.77-130.44-86.50-72.75-65.17-165.05-203.23-250.25-308.15-379.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 60.59
Beta 1.517
Diluted Shares Outstanding 306.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.87
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.81%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.888
Total Debt 6,378.36
Total Equity 18,577.62
Total Capital 24,955.99
Debt Weighting 25.56
Equity Weighting 74.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12,646.3620,571.6322,259.5622,488.8527,130.6833,407.6441,136.8450,654.2662,373.6576,804.43
EBITDA 1,301.832,343.442,551.043,238.225,878.574,624.495,694.417,011.878,634.1310,631.73
EBIT 1,235.502,252.262,458.843,143.675,792.624,482.895,520.066,797.188,369.7810,306.21
Tax Rate 31.87%25.05%24.04%21.09%23.87%25.18%25.18%25.18%25.18%25.18%
EBIAT 841.741,688.021,867.702,480.734,409.983,353.914,129.875,085.366,261.917,710.67
Depreciation 66.3291.1892.2094.5585.95141.59174.35214.69264.36325.52
Accounts Receivable --519.31134.96-31.20-358.77-187.90-343.51-422.99-520.85-641.35
Inventories --6,207.81-1,024.94918.50-1,994.25-7,367.36-6,139.55-7,560-9,309.08-11,462.83
Accounts Payable -570.73-256.22-31.84283.91462.46412.68508.16625.73770.49
Capital Expenditure -111.77-130.44-86.50-72.75-65.17-165.05-203.23-250.25-308.15-379.45
UFCF 796.30-4,507.63727.203,357.982,361.66-3,762.34-1,969.39-2,425.03-2,986.09-3,676.95
WACC
PV UFCF -3,449.16-1,655.17-1,868.45-2,109.22-2,381.01
SUM PV UFCF -11,463.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.08
Free cash flow (t + 1) -3,750.49
Terminal Value -52,972.98
Present Value of Terminal Value -34,302.73

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -45,765.74
Net Debt 3,456.62
Equity Value -49,222.36
Shares Outstanding 306.61
Equity Value Per Share -160.54