Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)

$171.44

+1.02 (+0.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1,189.54 | 171.44 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,6017,9879,7309,35815,86421,024.6727,864.1336,928.5248,941.6164,862.64
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3571,8132,3452,407-6073,156.604,183.465,544.377,3489,738.35
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3571,3641,5511,475-1,6181,573.742,085.692,764.183,663.394,855.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -4497949321,0111,582.862,097.772,780.193,684.604,883.23
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 7229812,4741,6281,4043,231.354,282.535,675.667,5229,968.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3715854916471,5061,488.611,972.872,614.653,465.224,592.47
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 243316312292706801.971,062.861,408.611,866.852,474.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 25586635155134.64178.44236.48313.41415.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,357-3,643-3,056-1,839-966-6,841.27-9,066.78-12,016.26-15,925.23-21,105.82
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 171.44
Beta 1.124
Diluted Shares Outstanding 253.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -2.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.50%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.065
Total Debt 31,949
Total Equity 43,442.90
Total Capital 75,391.90
Debt Weighting 42.38
Equity Weighting 57.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,6017,9879,7309,35815,86421,024.6727,864.1336,928.5248,941.6164,862.64
EBITDA 3571,8132,3452,407-6073,156.604,183.465,544.377,3489,738.35
EBIT 3571,3641,5511,475-1,6181,573.742,085.692,764.183,663.394,855.12
Tax Rate 169.43%61.61%9.37%115.63%-2.85%70.64%70.64%70.64%70.64%70.64%
EBIAT -247.88523.591,405.66-230.47-1,664.17462.08612.40811.621,075.641,425.55
Depreciation -4497949321,0111,582.862,097.772,780.193,684.604,883.23
Accounts Receivable --21494-156-85917.39-484.25-641.79-850.56-1,127.26
Inventories --73420-414-95.97-260.89-345.76-458.23-607.30
Accounts Payable -338-31120-20.3643.8058.0576.93101.96
Capital Expenditure -3,357-3,643-3,056-1,839-966-6,841.27-9,066.78-12,016.26-15,925.23-21,105.82
UFCF -3,604.88-2,924.41-750.34-1,304.47-2,772.17-4,895.28-7,057.95-9,353.95-12,396.85-16,429.63
WACC
PV UFCF -4,569.47-6,149.74-7,607.85-9,411.68-11,643.20
SUM PV UFCF -39,381.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) -16,758.23
Terminal Value -326,671.09
Present Value of Terminal Value -231,502.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -270,884.17
Net Debt 30,545
Equity Value -301,429.17
Shares Outstanding 253.40
Equity Value Per Share -1,189.54