Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

$51.19

+0.24 (+0.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 83.96 | 51.19 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,733.902,8282,3102,7884,5535,339.816,262.607,344.858,614.1310,102.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 651.50652.701227541,9341,299.861,524.491,787.942,096.912,459.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 528.20532.70-16431,8151,079.081,265.551,484.261,740.752,041.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 123.30120123111119220.78258.93303.68356.16417.71
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 928878.401815353581,066.821,251.181,467.401,720.982,018.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 164.70127.60164184191303.63356.10417.64489.81574.46
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 259.10273265259324502.03588.79690.54809.88949.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 112.30116.10127125191239.11280.43328.89385.73452.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -148.60-214.20-163-77-254-303.37-355.80-417.28-489.40-573.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 51.19
Beta 1.679
Diluted Shares Outstanding 112
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.29
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.728
Total Debt 397
Total Equity 5,733.28
Total Capital 6,130.28
Debt Weighting 6.48
Equity Weighting 93.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,733.902,8282,3102,7884,5535,339.816,262.607,344.858,614.1310,102.75
EBITDA 651.50652.701227541,9341,299.861,524.491,787.942,096.912,459.29
EBIT 528.20532.70-16431,8151,079.081,265.551,484.261,740.752,041.58
Tax Rate 23.60%24.69%78.26%19.65%23.29%33.90%33.90%33.90%33.90%33.90%
EBIAT 403.55401.15-0.22516.681,392.34713.30836.56981.131,150.681,349.54
Depreciation 123.30120123111119220.78258.93303.68356.16417.71
Accounts Receivable -37.10-36.40-20-7-112.63-52.47-61.54-72.17-84.65
Inventories --13.9086-65-178.03-86.76-101.75-119.33-139.96
Accounts Payable -3.8010.90-26648.1141.3248.4656.8466.66
Capital Expenditure -148.60-214.20-163-77-254-303.37-355.80-417.28-489.40-573.97
UFCF 378.25333.95-57.72534.681,251.34388.15641.79752.70882.781,035.33
WACC
PV UFCF 349.31519.77548.59579.01611.11
SUM PV UFCF 2,607.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,056.04
Terminal Value 11,579.39
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,834.78

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,442.56
Net Debt 39
Equity Value 9,403.56
Shares Outstanding 112
Equity Value Per Share 83.96