Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Lucara Diamond Corp. (LUC.TO)
$0.55
+0.01 (+1.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 176.19 | 192.54 | 125.26 | 230.08 | 212.93 | 239.85 | 270.17 | 304.32 | 342.79 | 386.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 58.49 | 72.23 | 18.97 | 100.29 | 93.91 | 83.25 | 93.77 | 105.63 | 118.98 | 134.02 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 58.49 | 72.23 | 18.97 | 100.29 | 68.50 | 54.63 | 61.53 | 69.31 | 78.07 | 87.94 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | 25.41 | 28.62 | 32.24 | 36.32 | 40.91 | 46.08 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 24.35 | 11.20 | 4.92 | 27.01 | 26.42 | 22.89 | 25.78 | 29.04 | 32.71 | 36.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 9.62 | 4.14 | 18.48 | 31.13 | 25.05 | 22.86 | 25.75 | 29.01 | 32.67 | 36.81 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 48.15 | 65.05 | 68.37 | 36.52 | 38.37 | 71.76 | 80.83 | 91.05 | 102.56 | 115.52 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 21.20 | 15.88 | 14.87 | 26.28 | 29.69 | 27.59 | 31.08 | 35.01 | 39.44 | 44.42 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -60.64 | -27.15 | -33.95 | -15.29 | -19.08 | -43.76 | -49.29 | -55.52 | -62.54 | -70.45 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.55 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.499 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 428.81 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 37.61 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.93% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.457 |
| Total Debt | 78.60 |
| Total Equity | 235.85 |
| Total Capital | 314.45 |
| Debt Weighting | 25.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 176.19 | 192.54 | 125.26 | 230.08 | 212.93 | 239.85 | 270.17 | 304.32 | 342.79 | 386.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 58.49 | 72.23 | 18.97 | 100.29 | 93.91 | 83.25 | 93.77 | 105.63 | 118.98 | 134.02 |
| EBIT | 58.49 | 72.23 | 18.97 | 100.29 | 68.50 | 54.63 | 61.53 | 69.31 | 78.07 | 87.94 |
| Tax Rate | 51.85% | 21.33% | 16.31% | 47.51% | 37.61% | 34.92% | 34.92% | 34.92% | 34.92% | 34.92% |
| EBIAT | 28.17 | 56.82 | 15.87 | 52.64 | 42.74 | 35.55 | 40.04 | 45.11 | 50.81 | 57.23 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | 25.41 | 28.62 | 32.24 | 36.32 | 40.91 | 46.08 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 5.48 | -14.34 | -12.65 | 6.09 | 2.19 | -2.89 | -3.26 | -3.67 | -4.13 |
| Inventories | - | -16.91 | -3.32 | 31.85 | -1.85 | -33.39 | -9.07 | -10.22 | -11.51 | -12.96 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5.32 | -1.01 | 11.41 | 3.40 | -2.09 | 3.49 | 3.93 | 4.43 | 4.99 |
| Capital Expenditure | -60.64 | -27.14 | -33.95 | -15.29 | -19.08 | -43.76 | -49.29 | -55.52 | -62.54 | -70.45 |
| UFCF | -32.47 | 12.92 | -36.75 | 67.96 | 56.70 | -12.88 | 14.52 | 16.36 | 18.42 | 20.75 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -11.87 | 12.32 | 12.78 | 13.26 | 13.76 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 40.25 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.57 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 21.17 |
| Terminal Value | 322.16 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 213.56 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 253.81 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 52.18 |
| Equity Value | 201.63 |
| Shares Outstanding | 428.81 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.47 |