Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

$388.05

+4.15 (+1.08%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 106.37 | 388.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	3,288.32	3,979.30	4,401.88	6,256.62	8,110.52	10,207.06	12,845.56	16,166.10	20,344.98	25,604.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	705.84	889.11	884.83	1,424.93	1,337.16	2,106.15	2,650.58	3,335.74	4,198.02	5,283.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	583.35	727.18	699.35	1,200.72	1,045.37	1,714.42	2,157.59	2,715.32	3,417.22	4,300.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	122.48	161.93	185.48	224.21	291.79	391.73	492.99	620.42	780.80	982.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	881.32	1,093.51	1,150.52	1,259.87	1,154.87	2,343.42	2,949.19	3,711.54	4,670.97	5,878.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	35.79	40.22	75.71	77	132.91	136.54	171.83	216.25	272.15	342.50
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	404.84	518.51	647.23	966.48	1,447.37	1,497.13	1,884.14	2,371.18	2,984.13	3,755.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	95.53	80	172.25	289.73	172.73	318.24	400.50	504.03	634.32	798.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-225.81	-283.05	-229.23	-394.50	-638.66	-681.16	-857.24	-1,078.83	-1,357.71	-1,708.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 388.05
Beta	1.390
Diluted Shares Outstanding	128.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	35.85
After-tax Cost of Debt	47.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.001
Total Debt	1,070.33
Total Equity	49,677
Total Capital	50,747.33
Debt Weighting	2.11
Equity Weighting	97.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	3,288.32	3,979.30	4,401.88	6,256.62	8,110.52	10,207.06	12,845.56	16,166.10	20,344.98	25,604.10
EBITDA	705.84	889.11	884.83	1,424.93	1,337.16	2,106.15	2,650.58	3,335.74	4,198.02	5,283.20
EBIT	583.35	727.18	699.35	1,200.72	1,045.37	1,714.42	2,157.59	2,715.32	3,417.22	4,300.57
Tax Rate	32.36%	28.06%	28.12%	26.88%	35.85%	30.26%	30.26%	30.26%	30.26%	30.26%
EBIAT	394.58	523.14	502.66	877.96	670.57	1,195.72	1,504.81	1,893.80	2,383.34	2,999.42
Depreciation	122.48	161.93	185.48	224.21	291.79	391.73	492.99	620.42	780.80	982.63
Accounts Receivable	-	-4.43	-35.49	-1.29	-55.91	-3.63	-35.29	-44.42	-55.90	-70.35
Inventories	-	-113.67	-128.72	-319.25	-480.89	-49.77	-387	-487.04	-612.94	-771.39
Accounts Payable	-	-15.54	92.25	117.48	-117	145.50	82.26	103.53	130.29	163.97
Capital Expenditure	-225.81	-283.05	-229.23	-394.50	-638.66	-681.16	-857.24	-1,078.83	-1,357.71	-1,708.67
UFCF	291.26	268.39	386.96	504.61	-330.08	998.39	800.52	1,007.45	1,267.87	1,595.61
WACC
PV UFCF						893.25	640.80	721.52	812.41	914.75
SUM PV UFCF										3,982.73

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.77
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,627.53
Terminal Value	16,658.41
Present Value of Terminal Value	9,550.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	13,532.81
Net Debt	-84.53
Equity Value	13,617.35
Shares Outstanding	128.02
Equity Value Per Share	106.37