Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
LANXESS Aktiengesellschaft (LXS.DE)
34.29 €
-0.36 (-1.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 7,197 | 6,802 | 6,104 | 7,557 | 8,088 | 8,392.93 | 8,709.35 | 9,037.71 | 9,378.44 | 9,732.03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,086 | 918 | 1,641 | 927 | 958 | 1,335.84 | 1,386.20 | 1,438.46 | 1,492.69 | 1,548.97 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 655 | 415 | 1,137 | 414 | 412 | 745.32 | 773.42 | 802.58 | 832.84 | 864.24 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 431 | 503 | 504 | 513 | 546 | 590.52 | 612.78 | 635.88 | 659.86 | 684.74 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,339 | 1,076 | 1,794 | 1,234 | 403 | 1,428.92 | 1,482.79 | 1,538.69 | 1,596.71 | 1,656.90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,347 | 1,195 | 1,070 | 1,633 | 1,861 | 1,652.27 | 1,714.57 | 1,779.21 | 1,846.29 | 1,915.89 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 795 | 656 | 681 | 1,008 | 709 | 905.63 | 939.77 | 975.20 | 1,011.97 | 1,050.12 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -497 | -508 | -456 | -479 | -407 | -557.55 | -578.57 | -600.38 | -623.01 | -646.50 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 34.29 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.732 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 86.59 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 2.72 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.07% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.960 |
| Total Debt | 4,230 |
| Total Equity | 2,969.10 |
| Total Capital | 7,199.10 |
| Debt Weighting | 58.76 |
| Equity Weighting | 41.24 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 7,197 | 6,802 | 6,104 | 7,557 | 8,088 | 8,392.93 | 8,709.35 | 9,037.71 | 9,378.44 | 9,732.03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,086 | 918 | 1,641 | 927 | 958 | 1,335.84 | 1,386.20 | 1,438.46 | 1,492.69 | 1,548.97 |
| EBIT | 655 | 415 | 1,137 | 414 | 412 | 745.32 | 773.42 | 802.58 | 832.84 | 864.24 |
| Tax Rate | -10.51% | 40.75% | 17.60% | 11.88% | 2.72% | 12.49% | 12.49% | 12.49% | 12.49% | 12.49% |
| EBIAT | 723.86 | 245.88 | 936.91 | 364.81 | 400.78 | 652.24 | 676.83 | 702.35 | 728.83 | 756.31 |
| Depreciation | 431 | 503 | 504 | 513 | 546 | 590.52 | 612.78 | 635.88 | 659.86 | 684.74 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 152 | 125 | -563 | -228 | 208.73 | -62.29 | -64.64 | -67.08 | -69.61 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -139 | 25 | 327 | -299 | 196.63 | 34.14 | 35.43 | 36.77 | 38.15 |
| Capital Expenditure | -497 | -508 | -456 | -479 | -407 | -557.55 | -578.57 | -600.38 | -623.01 | -646.50 |
| UFCF | 657.86 | 253.88 | 1,134.91 | 162.81 | 12.78 | 1,090.57 | 682.90 | 708.64 | 735.36 | 763.09 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,027.38 | 606.06 | 592.47 | 579.19 | 566.20 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 3,371.31 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.15 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 778.35 |
| Terminal Value | 18,755.37 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 13,916.36 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 17,287.67 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,827 |
| Equity Value | 13,460.67 |
| Shares Outstanding | 86.59 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 155.46 |