Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
LSI Industries Inc. (LYTS)
$12.37
+0.34 (+2.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 342.02 | 328.85 | 305.56 | 315.61 | 455.12 | 496.72 | 542.11 | 591.66 | 645.74 | 704.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -11.39 | -9.77 | 21.22 | 16.32 | 31.17 | 12.58 | 13.73 | 14.98 | 16.35 | 17.85 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -21.61 | -19.99 | 12.57 | 8.20 | 21.05 | -1.05 | -1.15 | -1.25 | -1.37 | -1.49 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 10.22 | 10.22 | 8.65 | 8.11 | 10.12 | 13.63 | 14.88 | 16.24 | 17.72 | 19.34 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 3.18 | 0.97 | 3.52 | 2.28 | 2.46 | 3.61 | 3.94 | 4.30 | 4.70 | 5.13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 52.39 | 55.61 | 40.61 | 58.96 | 78.79 | 80.98 | 88.38 | 96.46 | 105.27 | 114.89 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 50.99 | 43.51 | 38.75 | 58.94 | 74.42 | 75.35 | 82.24 | 89.76 | 97.96 | 106.91 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 17.93 | 18.66 | 14.22 | 32.98 | 34.78 | 33.44 | 36.50 | 39.83 | 43.47 | 47.44 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3.41 | -2.62 | -2.74 | -2.23 | -2.12 | -3.84 | -4.19 | -4.57 | -4.99 | -5.44 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.37 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.075 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 27.99 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.24 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.71% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.856 |
| Total Debt | 90.63 |
| Total Equity | 346.27 |
| Total Capital | 436.90 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.74 |
| Equity Weighting | 79.26 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 342.02 | 328.85 | 305.56 | 315.61 | 455.12 | 496.72 | 542.11 | 591.66 | 645.74 | 704.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -11.39 | -9.77 | 21.22 | 16.32 | 31.17 | 12.58 | 13.73 | 14.98 | 16.35 | 17.85 |
| EBIT | -21.61 | -19.99 | 12.57 | 8.20 | 21.05 | -1.05 | -1.15 | -1.25 | -1.37 | -1.49 |
| Tax Rate | 16.25% | 26.63% | 17.97% | 25.87% | 21.24% | 21.59% | 21.59% | 21.59% | 21.59% | 21.59% |
| EBIAT | -18.10 | -14.67 | 10.31 | 6.08 | 16.58 | -0.83 | -0.90 | -0.98 | -1.07 | -1.17 |
| Depreciation | 10.22 | 10.22 | 8.65 | 8.11 | 10.12 | 13.63 | 14.88 | 16.24 | 17.72 | 19.34 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3.22 | 15 | -18.35 | -19.83 | -2.19 | -7.40 | -8.08 | -8.82 | -9.62 |
| Inventories | - | 7.48 | 4.76 | -20.19 | -15.48 | -0.93 | -6.89 | -7.52 | -8.20 | -8.95 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.74 | -4.45 | 18.76 | 1.81 | -1.34 | 3.06 | 3.34 | 3.64 | 3.97 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3.41 | -2.62 | -2.74 | -2.23 | -2.12 | -3.84 | -4.19 | -4.57 | -4.99 | -5.44 |
| UFCF | -11.29 | -2.06 | 31.53 | -7.81 | -8.93 | 4.51 | -1.44 | -1.57 | -1.72 | -1.87 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 4.20 | -1.25 | -1.27 | -1.29 | -1.31 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -0.93 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.37 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1.91 |
| Terminal Value | -35.60 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -24.95 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -25.88 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 88.17 |
| Equity Value | -114.05 |
| Shares Outstanding | 27.99 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -4.07 |