Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
LSI Industries Inc. (LYTS)
$15.82
+0.23 (+1.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 328.85 | 305.56 | 315.61 | 455.12 | 496.98 | 558.61 | 627.89 | 705.76 | 793.28 | 891.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1.10 | 4.23 | 8.08 | 21.07 | 37.05 | 18.28 | 20.55 | 23.10 | 25.97 | 29.19 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -9.12 | -4.42 | -0.03 | 10.95 | 23.71 | 3.29 | 3.70 | 4.16 | 4.68 | 5.26 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 10.22 | 8.65 | 8.11 | 10.12 | 13.34 | 14.99 | 16.85 | 18.94 | 21.29 | 23.93 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 0.97 | 3.52 | 2.28 | 2.46 | 3.37 | 3.78 | 4.25 | 4.78 | 5.37 | 6.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 55.61 | 40.61 | 58.96 | 78.79 | 82.24 | 92.44 | 103.91 | 116.79 | 131.28 | 147.56 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 43.51 | 38.75 | 58.94 | 74.42 | 75.72 | 85.11 | 95.66 | 107.52 | 120.86 | 135.85 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 18.66 | 14.22 | 32.98 | 34.78 | 29.21 | 38.32 | 43.07 | 48.41 | 54.41 | 61.16 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.62 | -2.74 | -2.23 | -2.12 | -3.56 | -4 | -4.50 | -5.06 | -5.68 | -6.39 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 15.82 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.062 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 29.68 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.70 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.09% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.644 |
| Total Debt | 35.20 |
| Total Equity | 469.54 |
| Total Capital | 504.74 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.97 |
| Equity Weighting | 93.03 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 328.85 | 305.56 | 315.61 | 455.12 | 496.98 | 558.61 | 627.89 | 705.76 | 793.28 | 891.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1.10 | 4.23 | 8.08 | 21.07 | 37.05 | 18.28 | 20.55 | 23.10 | 25.97 | 29.19 |
| EBIT | -9.12 | -4.42 | -0.03 | 10.95 | 23.71 | 3.29 | 3.70 | 4.16 | 4.68 | 5.26 |
| Tax Rate | 26.63% | 17.97% | 25.87% | 21.24% | 22.70% | 22.88% | 22.88% | 22.88% | 22.88% | 22.88% |
| EBIAT | -6.69 | -3.63 | -0.02 | 8.62 | 18.33 | 2.54 | 2.85 | 3.21 | 3.61 | 4.05 |
| Depreciation | 10.22 | 8.65 | 8.11 | 10.12 | 13.34 | 14.99 | 16.85 | 18.94 | 21.29 | 23.93 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 15 | -18.35 | -19.83 | -3.45 | -10.20 | -11.46 | -12.89 | -14.48 | -16.28 |
| Inventories | - | 4.76 | -20.19 | -15.48 | -1.29 | -9.39 | -10.55 | -11.86 | -13.33 | -14.99 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -4.45 | 18.76 | 1.81 | -5.58 | 9.11 | 4.75 | 5.34 | 6 | 6.75 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.62 | -2.74 | -2.23 | -2.12 | -3.56 | -4 | -4.50 | -5.06 | -5.68 | -6.39 |
| UFCF | 0.91 | 17.60 | -13.92 | -16.89 | 17.78 | 3.05 | -2.06 | -2.32 | -2.60 | -2.93 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 2.78 | -1.72 | -1.76 | -1.81 | -1.86 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -4.36 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.54 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2.99 |
| Terminal Value | -39.61 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -25.12 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -29.48 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 35.20 |
| Equity Value | -64.68 |
| Shares Outstanding | 29.68 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -2.18 |