Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

LSI Industries Inc. (LYTS)

$15.82

+0.23 (+1.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.18 | 15.82 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 328.85305.56315.61455.12496.98558.61627.89705.76793.28891.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1.104.238.0821.0737.0518.2820.5523.1025.9729.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -9.12-4.42-0.0310.9523.713.293.704.164.685.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.228.658.1110.1213.3414.9916.8518.9421.2923.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 0.973.522.282.463.373.784.254.785.376.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 55.6140.6158.9678.7982.2492.44103.91116.79131.28147.56
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 43.5138.7558.9474.4275.7285.1195.66107.52120.86135.85
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.6614.2232.9834.7829.2138.3243.0748.4154.4161.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.62-2.74-2.23-2.12-3.56-4-4.50-5.06-5.68-6.39
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 15.82
Beta 1.062
Diluted Shares Outstanding 29.68
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.70
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.644
Total Debt 35.20
Total Equity 469.54
Total Capital 504.74
Debt Weighting 6.97
Equity Weighting 93.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 328.85305.56315.61455.12496.98558.61627.89705.76793.28891.67
EBITDA 1.104.238.0821.0737.0518.2820.5523.1025.9729.19
EBIT -9.12-4.42-0.0310.9523.713.293.704.164.685.26
Tax Rate 26.63%17.97%25.87%21.24%22.70%22.88%22.88%22.88%22.88%22.88%
EBIAT -6.69-3.63-0.028.6218.332.542.853.213.614.05
Depreciation 10.228.658.1110.1213.3414.9916.8518.9421.2923.93
Accounts Receivable -15-18.35-19.83-3.45-10.20-11.46-12.89-14.48-16.28
Inventories -4.76-20.19-15.48-1.29-9.39-10.55-11.86-13.33-14.99
Accounts Payable --4.4518.761.81-5.589.114.755.3466.75
Capital Expenditure -2.62-2.74-2.23-2.12-3.56-4-4.50-5.06-5.68-6.39
UFCF 0.9117.60-13.92-16.8917.783.05-2.06-2.32-2.60-2.93
WACC
PV UFCF 2.78-1.72-1.76-1.81-1.86
SUM PV UFCF -4.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.54
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2.99
Terminal Value -39.61
Present Value of Terminal Value -25.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -29.48
Net Debt 35.20
Equity Value -64.68
Shares Outstanding 29.68
Equity Value Per Share -2.18