Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

LSI Industries Inc. (LYTS)

$12.37

+0.34 (+2.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -4.07 | 12.37 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 342.02328.85305.56315.61455.12496.72542.11591.66645.74704.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -11.39-9.7721.2216.3231.1712.5813.7314.9816.3517.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -21.61-19.9912.578.2021.05-1.05-1.15-1.25-1.37-1.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.2210.228.658.1110.1213.6314.8816.2417.7219.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 3.180.973.522.282.463.613.944.304.705.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 52.3955.6140.6158.9678.7980.9888.3896.46105.27114.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 50.9943.5138.7558.9474.4275.3582.2489.7697.96106.91
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 17.9318.6614.2232.9834.7833.4436.5039.8343.4747.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.41-2.62-2.74-2.23-2.12-3.84-4.19-4.57-4.99-5.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.37
Beta 1.075
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.99
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.71%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.856
Total Debt 90.63
Total Equity 346.27
Total Capital 436.90
Debt Weighting 20.74
Equity Weighting 79.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 342.02328.85305.56315.61455.12496.72542.11591.66645.74704.75
EBITDA -11.39-9.7721.2216.3231.1712.5813.7314.9816.3517.85
EBIT -21.61-19.9912.578.2021.05-1.05-1.15-1.25-1.37-1.49
Tax Rate 16.25%26.63%17.97%25.87%21.24%21.59%21.59%21.59%21.59%21.59%
EBIAT -18.10-14.6710.316.0816.58-0.83-0.90-0.98-1.07-1.17
Depreciation 10.2210.228.658.1110.1213.6314.8816.2417.7219.34
Accounts Receivable --3.2215-18.35-19.83-2.19-7.40-8.08-8.82-9.62
Inventories -7.484.76-20.19-15.48-0.93-6.89-7.52-8.20-8.95
Accounts Payable -0.74-4.4518.761.81-1.343.063.343.643.97
Capital Expenditure -3.41-2.62-2.74-2.23-2.12-3.84-4.19-4.57-4.99-5.44
UFCF -11.29-2.0631.53-7.81-8.934.51-1.44-1.57-1.72-1.87
WACC
PV UFCF 4.20-1.25-1.27-1.29-1.31
SUM PV UFCF -0.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.37
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1.91
Terminal Value -35.60
Present Value of Terminal Value -24.95

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -25.88
Net Debt 88.17
Equity Value -114.05
Shares Outstanding 27.99
Equity Value Per Share -4.07