Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Macy's, Inc. (M)

$15.67

-0.17 (-1.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.96 | 15.67 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 25,64125,73925,33118,09725,29225,924.1226,572.0427,236.1527,916.8628,614.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,8512,6531,913-3,5662,9991,095.601,122.981,151.041,179.811,209.30
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,8601,691932-4,5252,12546.7147.8749.0750.3051.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9919629819598741,048.891,075.101,101.971,129.521,157.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,4551,1626851,6791,7121,500.491,537.991,576.431,615.831,656.21
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 363400409276297377.65387.09396.76406.68416.84
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5,1785,2635,1883,7744,3835,148.875,277.555,409.455,544.655,683.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,3252,6382,6592,8563,2803,036.433,112.313,190.103,269.833,351.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -760-932-1,157-466-597-834.13-854.98-876.35-898.25-920.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 15.67
Beta 1.712
Diluted Shares Outstanding 311.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.886
Total Debt 6,826
Total Equity 4,874.94
Total Capital 11,700.94
Debt Weighting 58.34
Equity Weighting 41.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 25,64125,73925,33118,09725,29225,924.1226,572.0427,236.1527,916.8628,614.58
EBITDA 2,8512,6531,913-3,5662,9991,095.601,122.981,151.041,179.811,209.30
EBIT 1,8601,691932-4,5252,12546.7147.8749.0750.3051.55
Tax Rate -3.30%21.97%22.53%17.66%23.37%16.45%16.45%16.45%16.45%16.45%
EBIAT 1,921.351,319.46722.04-3,725.801,628.4839.02404142.0243.07
Depreciation 9919629819598741,048.891,075.101,101.971,129.521,157.75
Accounts Receivable --37-9133-21-80.65-9.44-9.67-9.92-10.16
Inventories --85751,414-609-765.87-128.68-131.90-135.20-138.58
Accounts Payable -31321197424-243.5775.8977.7979.7381.72
Capital Expenditure -760-932-1,157-466-597-834.13-854.98-876.35-898.25-920.70
UFCF 2,152.351,540.46633.04-1,488.801,699.48-836.31197.89202.84207.91213.10
WACC
PV UFCF -784.16173.98167.21160.70154.45
SUM PV UFCF -127.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.65
Free cash flow (t + 1) 217.37
Terminal Value 4,674.53
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,387.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,260.11
Net Debt 5,114
Equity Value -1,853.89
Shares Outstanding 311.10
Equity Value Per Share -5.96