Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Marel hf. (MAREL.AS)
2.87 €
-0.11 (-3.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,197.90 | 1,283.70 | 1,237.80 | 1,360.80 | 1,708.70 | 1,875.68 | 2,058.98 | 2,260.19 | 2,481.07 | 2,723.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 211.50 | 210.10 | 200.80 | 195.60 | 176.30 | 281.11 | 308.59 | 338.74 | 371.85 | 408.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 156.90 | 152.40 | 138 | 127 | 94.70 | 191.30 | 209.99 | 230.51 | 253.04 | 277.77 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 54.60 | 57.70 | 62.80 | 68.60 | 81.60 | 89.82 | 98.60 | 108.23 | 118.81 | 130.42 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 56.30 | 303.70 | 78.60 | 77.10 | 75.70 | 168.08 | 184.50 | 202.53 | 222.32 | 244.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 149.90 | 166.80 | 199.90 | 273.40 | 403.60 | 320.25 | 351.54 | 385.90 | 423.61 | 465.01 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 217 | 200.50 | 222.70 | 117.10 | 129.10 | 254.67 | 279.55 | 306.87 | 336.86 | 369.78 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -57 | -37.90 | -54.60 | -70.90 | -88.40 | -84.43 | -92.68 | -101.73 | -111.68 | -122.59 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.87 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.368 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 752.70 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.84 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.72% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.450 |
| Total Debt | 892.40 |
| Total Equity | 2,160.25 |
| Total Capital | 3,052.65 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.23 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.77 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,197.90 | 1,283.70 | 1,237.80 | 1,360.80 | 1,708.70 | 1,875.68 | 2,058.98 | 2,260.19 | 2,481.07 | 2,723.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 211.50 | 210.10 | 200.80 | 195.60 | 176.30 | 281.11 | 308.59 | 338.74 | 371.85 | 408.18 |
| EBIT | 156.90 | 152.40 | 138 | 127 | 94.70 | 191.30 | 209.99 | 230.51 | 253.04 | 277.77 |
| Tax Rate | 16.16% | 22.43% | 22.11% | 19.80% | 21.84% | 20.47% | 20.47% | 20.47% | 20.47% | 20.47% |
| EBIAT | 131.54 | 118.22 | 107.48 | 101.85 | 74.02 | 152.14 | 167.01 | 183.33 | 201.25 | 220.91 |
| Depreciation | 54.60 | 57.70 | 62.80 | 68.60 | 81.60 | 89.82 | 98.60 | 108.23 | 118.81 | 130.42 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -16.90 | -33.10 | -73.50 | -130.20 | 83.35 | -31.30 | -34.35 | -37.71 | -41.40 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -16.50 | 22.20 | -105.60 | 12 | 125.57 | 24.89 | 27.32 | 29.99 | 32.92 |
| Capital Expenditure | -57 | -37.90 | -54.60 | -70.90 | -88.40 | -84.43 | -92.68 | -101.73 | -111.68 | -122.59 |
| UFCF | 129.14 | 104.62 | 104.78 | -79.55 | -50.98 | 366.45 | 166.52 | 182.79 | 200.66 | 220.26 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 351.14 | 152.90 | 160.83 | 169.17 | 177.94 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,011.97 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.36 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 224.67 |
| Terminal Value | 9,519.91 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 7,690.64 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 8,702.61 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 816.70 |
| Equity Value | 7,885.91 |
| Shares Outstanding | 752.70 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 10.48 |