Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Marel hf. (MAREL.AS)

3.22 €

-0.10 (-3.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.62 | 3.22 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,038.201,197.901,283.701,237.801,360.801,459.141,564.591,677.651,798.891,928.89
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 184.30211.50210.10200.80195.60240.38257.75276.38296.35317.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 132.70156.90152.40138127169.94182.22195.39209.51224.65
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 51.6054.6057.7062.8068.6070.4475.5380.9986.8493.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 31.9056.30303.7078.6077.10126.79135.95145.78156.31167.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 124.40149.90166.80199.90273.40215.17230.71247.39265.26284.43
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 195.90217200.50222.70117.10231.13247.83265.74284.94305.54
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -57.90-57-37.90-54.60-70.90-66.85-71.69-76.87-82.42-88.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.22
Beta 0.285
Diluted Shares Outstanding 752.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.315
Total Debt 276.30
Total Equity 2,423.69
Total Capital 2,699.99
Debt Weighting 10.23
Equity Weighting 89.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,038.201,197.901,283.701,237.801,360.801,459.141,564.591,677.651,798.891,928.89
EBITDA 184.30211.50210.10200.80195.60240.38257.75276.38296.35317.77
EBIT 132.70156.90152.40138127169.94182.22195.39209.51224.65
Tax Rate 19.33%16.16%22.43%22.11%19.80%19.97%19.97%19.97%19.97%19.97%
EBIAT 107.04131.54118.22107.48101.85136.01145.84156.38167.68179.79
Depreciation 51.6054.6057.7062.8068.6070.4475.5380.9986.8493.12
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --25.50-16.90-33.10-73.5058.23-15.55-16.67-17.88-19.17
Accounts Payable -21.10-16.5022.20-105.60114.0316.7017.9119.2020.59
Capital Expenditure -57.90-57-37.90-54.60-70.90-66.85-71.69-76.87-82.42-88.38
UFCF 100.74124.74104.62104.78-79.55311.86150.83161.73173.42185.96
WACC
PV UFCF 297.18136.97139.95143146.12
SUM PV UFCF 863.22

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) 189.67
Terminal Value 6,451.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,069.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,932.61
Net Debt 199.20
Equity Value 5,733.41
Shares Outstanding 752.70
Equity Value Per Share 7.62