Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Marel hf. (MAREL.AS)

2.74 €

+0.03 (+1.11%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 6.47 | 2.74 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,197.90	1,283.70	1,237.80	1,360.80	1,708.70	1,875.68	2,058.98	2,260.19	2,481.07	2,723.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	211.60	210.20	200.90	195	183.30	282.58	310.19	340.50	373.78	410.31
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	157	152.50	138.10	126.40	101.70	192.76	211.60	232.27	254.97	279.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	54.60	57.70	62.80	68.60	81.60	89.82	98.60	108.23	118.81	130.42
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	56.30	303.70	78.60	77.10	75.70	168.08	184.50	202.53	222.32	244.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	254.20	279.46	350.91	385.20	422.84	464.16	509.52	559.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	149.90	166.80	199.90	273.40	403.60	320.25	351.54	385.90	423.61	465.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	217	200.50	222.70	117.10	129.10	254.67	279.55	306.87	336.86	369.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-57	-37.90	-54.60	-70.90	-88.40	-84.43	-92.68	-101.73	-111.68	-122.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 2.74
Beta	0.346
Diluted Shares Outstanding	752.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	21.84
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.205
Total Debt	892.40
Total Equity	2,062.40
Total Capital	2,954.80
Debt Weighting	30.20
Equity Weighting	69.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,197.90	1,283.70	1,237.80	1,360.80	1,708.70	1,875.68	2,058.98	2,260.19	2,481.07	2,723.53
EBITDA	211.60	210.20	200.90	195	183.30	282.58	310.19	340.50	373.78	410.31
EBIT	157	152.50	138.10	126.40	101.70	192.76	211.60	232.27	254.97	279.89
Tax Rate	16.16%	22.43%	22.11%	19.80%	21.84%	20.47%	20.47%	20.47%	20.47%	20.47%
EBIAT	131.62	118.30	107.56	101.37	79.49	153.30	168.29	184.73	202.78	222.60
Depreciation	54.60	57.70	62.80	68.60	81.60	89.82	98.60	108.23	118.81	130.42
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-25.26	-71.45	-34.29	-37.64	-41.32	-45.36	-49.79
Inventories	-	-16.90	-33.10	-73.50	-130.20	83.35	-31.30	-34.35	-37.71	-41.40
Accounts Payable	-	-16.50	22.20	-105.60	12	125.57	24.89	27.32	29.99	32.92
Capital Expenditure	-57	-37.90	-54.60	-70.90	-88.40	-84.43	-92.68	-101.73	-111.68	-122.59
UFCF	129.22	104.70	104.86	-105.29	-116.96	333.32	130.15	142.87	156.83	172.16
WACC
PV UFCF						317.90	118.39	123.95	129.77	135.86
SUM PV UFCF										825.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.85
Free cash flow (t + 1)	175.60
Terminal Value	6,161.53
Present Value of Terminal Value	4,862.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	5,688.22
Net Debt	816.70
Equity Value	4,871.52
Shares Outstanding	752.70
Equity Value Per Share	6.47