Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

McDonald's Corporation (MCD)

$230.74

-3.66 (-1.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 179.13 | 230.74 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 22,820.4021,025.2021,076.5019,207.8023,222.9023,479.2023,738.3224,000.3124,265.1924,532.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 10,858.2010,279.3010,757.909,110.2010,643.4011,306.4011,431.1811,557.3411,684.8911,813.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 9,494.808,797.309,1407,358.808,912.279,556.169,661.639,768.269,876.069,985.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,363.401,4821,617.901,751.401,731.131,750.241,769.551,789.081,808.831,828.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,463.80866898.503,449.104,709.202,696.042,725.802,755.882,786.292,817.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,976.202,441.502,224.202,110.301,872.402,342.022,367.872,3942,420.432,447.14
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 58.8051.1050.2051.1058.3458.9959.6460.3060.9661.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 924.801,207.90988.20741.301,065.091,076.851,088.731,100.751,112.891,125.18
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,853.70-2,741.70-2,393.70-1,640.80-2,040-2,340.74-2,366.57-2,392.69-2,419.10-2,445.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 230.74
Beta 0.570
Diluted Shares Outstanding 751.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.34
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.495
Total Debt 48,643.60
Total Equity 173,424.18
Total Capital 222,067.78
Debt Weighting 21.90
Equity Weighting 78.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 22,820.4021,025.2021,076.5019,207.8023,222.9023,479.2023,738.3224,000.3124,265.1924,532.99
EBITDA 10,858.2010,279.3010,757.909,110.2010,643.4011,306.4011,431.1811,557.3411,684.8911,813.85
EBIT 9,494.808,797.309,1407,358.808,912.279,556.169,661.639,768.269,876.069,985.06
Tax Rate 39.44%24.20%24.85%22.96%17.34%25.76%25.76%25.76%25.76%25.76%
EBIAT 5,750.266,668.016,868.485,668.877,366.967,094.537,172.837,251.997,332.037,412.95
Depreciation 1,363.401,4821,617.901,751.401,731.131,750.241,769.551,789.081,808.831,828.79
Accounts Receivable --465.30217.30113.90237.90-469.62-25.85-26.13-26.42-26.71
Inventories -7.700.90-0.90-7.24-0.64-0.65-0.66-0.67-0.67
Accounts Payable -283.10-219.70-246.90323.7911.7511.8812.0212.1512.28
Capital Expenditure -1,853.70-2,741.70-2,393.70-1,640.80-2,040-2,340.74-2,366.57-2,392.69-2,419.10-2,445.79
UFCF 5,259.965,233.816,091.185,645.577,612.546,045.526,561.206,633.616,706.826,780.84
WACC
PV UFCF 5,729.805,893.815,647.675,411.805,185.79
SUM PV UFCF 27,868.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,916.46
Terminal Value 197,050
Present Value of Terminal Value 150,698.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 178,567.17
Net Debt 43,934.40
Equity Value 134,632.77
Shares Outstanding 751.60
Equity Value Per Share 179.13