Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)
$71.47
+0.44 (+0.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 240.31 | 249.17 | 184.41 | 395.38 | 477.87 | 612.82 | 785.87 | 1,007.80 | 1,292.39 | 1,657.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 57.44 | 54.45 | 32.59 | 128.30 | 154.88 | 157.24 | 201.64 | 258.59 | 331.61 | 425.25 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 42.83 | 39.58 | 15.27 | 89.88 | 111.44 | 107.90 | 138.37 | 177.45 | 227.56 | 291.82 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 14.62 | 14.88 | 17.32 | 38.43 | 43.43 | 49.34 | 63.27 | 81.14 | 104.05 | 133.43 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 30.46 | 60.54 | 28.31 | 33.53 | 38.78 | 84.47 | 108.32 | 138.91 | 178.14 | 228.44 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 7.02 | 5.64 | 28.63 | 35.83 | 34.55 | 45.35 | 58.16 | 74.58 | 95.64 | 122.65 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 3.69 | 6.73 | 7.82 | 7.16 | 7.56 | 14.55 | 18.66 | 23.93 | 30.69 | 39.36 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 11.18 | 17.04 | 11.65 | 18.58 | 14.42 | 31.29 | 40.12 | 51.45 | 65.98 | 84.61 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -137.07 | -125.37 | -88.67 | -46.93 | -39.48 | -215.18 | -275.94 | -353.87 | -453.80 | -581.95 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 71.47 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.689 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 19.58 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.76 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 9.44% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.352 |
| Total Debt | 20.56 |
| Total Equity | 1,399.24 |
| Total Capital | 1,419.80 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.45 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.55 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 240.31 | 249.17 | 184.41 | 395.38 | 477.87 | 612.82 | 785.87 | 1,007.80 | 1,292.39 | 1,657.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 57.44 | 54.45 | 32.59 | 128.30 | 154.88 | 157.24 | 201.64 | 258.59 | 331.61 | 425.25 |
| EBIT | 42.83 | 39.58 | 15.27 | 89.88 | 111.44 | 107.90 | 138.37 | 177.45 | 227.56 | 291.82 |
| Tax Rate | 20.05% | 19.61% | -57.87% | 19.78% | 19.76% | 4.26% | 4.26% | 4.26% | 4.26% | 4.26% |
| EBIAT | 34.24 | 31.82 | 24.11 | 72.10 | 89.42 | 103.30 | 132.47 | 169.88 | 217.86 | 279.38 |
| Depreciation | 14.62 | 14.88 | 17.32 | 38.43 | 43.43 | 49.34 | 63.27 | 81.14 | 104.05 | 133.43 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 1.38 | -22.99 | -7.20 | 1.27 | -10.80 | -12.81 | -16.42 | -21.06 | -27.01 |
| Inventories | - | -3.04 | -1.09 | 0.66 | -0.40 | -6.99 | -4.11 | -5.27 | -6.76 | -8.67 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 5.85 | -5.38 | 6.92 | -4.16 | 16.87 | 8.83 | 11.33 | 14.53 | 18.63 |
| Capital Expenditure | -137.07 | -125.37 | -88.67 | -46.93 | -39.48 | -215.18 | -275.94 | -353.87 | -453.80 | -581.95 |
| UFCF | -88.22 | -74.49 | -76.69 | 63.99 | 90.09 | -63.46 | -88.28 | -113.21 | -145.18 | -186.18 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -57.01 | -71.24 | -82.07 | -94.54 | -108.91 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -413.77 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.32 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -189.91 |
| Terminal Value | -2,037.61 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,191.94 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,605.72 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -18.22 |
| Equity Value | -1,587.50 |
| Shares Outstanding | 19.58 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -81.09 |