Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)

$81.04

+3.62 (+4.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -85.84 | 81.04 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 230.73240.32249.17184.41395.38490.51608.54754.97936.631,162.01
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 55.8057.4454.4532.59128.31117.79146.13181.29224.92279.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 40.6742.8339.5815.2789.8880.78100.22124.33154.25191.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 15.1314.6214.8817.3238.4337.0145.9156.9670.6787.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 29.1530.4660.5428.3133.5372.0489.38110.89137.57170.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8.937.025.6428.6335.8333.0140.9550.8063.0278.19
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3.333.696.737.827.1611.5114.2917.7221.9927.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.1811.1817.0411.6518.5825.5631.7139.3448.8160.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -49.99-137.07-125.37-88.67-46.93-185.38-229.99-285.33-353.99-439.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 81.04
Beta 1.729
Diluted Shares Outstanding 19.42
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.833
Total Debt 102.39
Total Equity 1,574.04
Total Capital 1,676.43
Debt Weighting 6.11
Equity Weighting 93.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 230.73240.32249.17184.41395.38490.51608.54754.97936.631,162.01
EBITDA 55.8057.4454.4532.59128.31117.79146.13181.29224.92279.04
EBIT 40.6742.8339.5815.2789.8880.78100.22124.33154.25191.36
Tax Rate 35.67%20.05%19.61%-57.87%19.78%7.45%7.45%7.45%7.45%7.45%
EBIAT 26.1634.2431.8224.1172.1074.7792.76115.07142.76177.12
Depreciation 15.1314.6214.8817.3238.4337.0145.9156.9670.6787.67
Accounts Receivable -1.911.38-22.99-7.202.82-7.94-9.85-12.22-15.16
Inventories --0.36-3.04-1.090.66-4.36-2.77-3.44-4.26-5.29
Accounts Payable -35.85-5.386.926.996.157.639.4711.74
Capital Expenditure -49.99-137.07-125.37-88.67-46.93-185.38-229.99-285.33-353.99-439.17
UFCF -8.70-83.66-74.49-76.6963.99-68.16-95.89-118.96-147.58-183.09
WACC
PV UFCF -61.22-77.36-86.21-96.07-107.06
SUM PV UFCF -427.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) -186.75
Terminal Value -2,001.66
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,170.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,598.31
Net Debt 68.87
Equity Value -1,667.18
Shares Outstanding 19.42
Equity Value Per Share -85.84