Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Major Drilling Group International ... (MDI.TO)
$8.95
-0.01 (-0.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 342.33 | 384.82 | 409.14 | 432.08 | 650.42 | 772.16 | 916.69 | 1,088.28 | 1,291.98 | 1,533.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 24.66 | 31.35 | -14.90 | 53.91 | 114.09 | 64.44 | 76.50 | 90.82 | 107.82 | 128 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -23.49 | -9.56 | -54.45 | 14.75 | 70.11 | -13.07 | -15.51 | -18.41 | -21.86 | -25.95 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 48.15 | 40.91 | 39.54 | 39.16 | 43.98 | 77.50 | 92.01 | 109.23 | 129.68 | 153.95 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 21.26 | 27.37 | 58.43 | 22.36 | 71.26 | 67.54 | 80.18 | 95.19 | 113 | 134.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 93.38 | 92.52 | 75.99 | 108.54 | 144.66 | 181.08 | 214.98 | 255.22 | 302.99 | 359.70 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 82.52 | 90.33 | 99.82 | 85.59 | 96.78 | 164.72 | 195.55 | 232.16 | 275.61 | 327.20 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 55.91 | 63.38 | 55.86 | 73.08 | 102.60 | 122.22 | 145.10 | 172.25 | 204.50 | 242.77 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -22.51 | -25.49 | -32.04 | -31.30 | -49.94 | -55.52 | -65.92 | -78.25 | -92.90 | -110.29 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.95 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.488 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 82.73 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.94 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.29% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.809 |
| Total Debt | 55.39 |
| Total Equity | 740.41 |
| Total Capital | 795.79 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.96 |
| Equity Weighting | 93.04 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 342.33 | 384.82 | 409.14 | 432.08 | 650.42 | 772.16 | 916.69 | 1,088.28 | 1,291.98 | 1,533.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 24.66 | 31.35 | -14.90 | 53.91 | 114.09 | 64.44 | 76.50 | 90.82 | 107.82 | 128 |
| EBIT | -23.49 | -9.56 | -54.45 | 14.75 | 70.11 | -13.07 | -15.51 | -18.41 | -21.86 | -25.95 |
| Tax Rate | 7.51% | -74.96% | -27.74% | 26.14% | 21.94% | -9.42% | -9.42% | -9.42% | -9.42% | -9.42% |
| EBIAT | -21.73 | -16.73 | -69.55 | 10.90 | 54.73 | -14.30 | -16.97 | -20.15 | -23.92 | -28.40 |
| Depreciation | 48.15 | 40.91 | 39.54 | 39.16 | 43.98 | 77.50 | 92.01 | 109.23 | 129.68 | 153.95 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.86 | 16.53 | -32.55 | -36.11 | -36.43 | -33.90 | -40.24 | -47.77 | -56.71 |
| Inventories | - | -7.81 | -9.50 | 14.24 | -11.20 | -67.94 | -30.83 | -36.60 | -43.46 | -51.59 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 7.47 | -7.52 | 17.22 | 29.51 | 19.62 | 22.88 | 27.16 | 32.24 | 38.28 |
| Capital Expenditure | -22.51 | -25.49 | -32.04 | -31.30 | -49.94 | -55.52 | -65.92 | -78.25 | -92.90 | -110.29 |
| UFCF | 3.91 | -0.78 | -62.53 | 17.66 | 30.97 | -77.06 | -32.73 | -38.85 | -46.12 | -54.76 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -69.91 | -26.94 | -29.02 | -31.25 | -33.66 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -190.78 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.22 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -55.85 |
| Terminal Value | -679.48 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -417.71 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -608.49 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -15.87 |
| Equity Value | -592.62 |
| Shares Outstanding | 82.73 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -7.16 |