Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MGM Resorts International (MGG.DE)

36.58 €

+0.34 (+0.92%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 46.66 | 36.58 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	10,773.90	11,763.10	12,899.67	5,162.08	9,680.14	10,802.67	12,055.36	13,453.32	15,013.39	16,754.37
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,489.85	2,464.44	4,834.07	662.64	3,457.99	2,810.73	3,136.66	3,500.40	3,906.31	4,359.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,496.37	1,286.40	3,529.42	-547.92	2,307.38	1,413.14	1,577.02	1,759.89	1,963.97	2,191.71
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	993.48	1,178.04	1,304.65	1,210.56	1,150.61	1,397.58	1,559.65	1,740.51	1,942.34	2,167.58
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	1,499.99	1,526.76	2,329.60	5,101.64	4,703.06	4,156.32	4,638.30	5,176.16	5,776.40	6,446.24
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	583.10	685.64	1,374.88	559.92	857.78	898.93	1,003.18	1,119.51	1,249.33	1,394.20
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	102.29	110.83	102.89	88.32	96.37	116.58	130.10	145.18	162.02	180.81
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	255.03	302.58	235.44	142.52	263.10	264.52	295.20	329.43	367.63	410.26
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,864.08	-1,486.84	-739.01	-270.58	-490.70	-993.44	-1,108.64	-1,237.20	-1,380.67	-1,540.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 36.58
Beta	2.280
Diluted Shares Outstanding	487.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	14.19
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.79%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.360
Total Debt	24,573.26
Total Equity	17,827.48
Total Capital	42,400.74
Debt Weighting	57.95
Equity Weighting	42.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	10,773.90	11,763.10	12,899.67	5,162.08	9,680.14	10,802.67	12,055.36	13,453.32	15,013.39	16,754.37
EBITDA	2,489.85	2,464.44	4,834.07	662.64	3,457.99	2,810.73	3,136.66	3,500.40	3,906.31	4,359.29
EBIT	1,496.37	1,286.40	3,529.42	-547.92	2,307.38	1,413.14	1,577.02	1,759.89	1,963.97	2,191.71
Tax Rate	-103.40%	26.38%	28.02%	31.67%	14.19%	-0.63%	-0.63%	-0.63%	-0.63%	-0.63%
EBIAT	3,043.63	947.08	2,540.57	-374.37	1,979.95	1,422.02	1,586.92	1,770.95	1,976.31	2,205.48
Depreciation	993.48	1,178.04	1,304.65	1,210.56	1,150.61	1,397.58	1,559.65	1,740.51	1,942.34	2,167.58
Accounts Receivable	-	-102.54	-689.25	814.97	-297.86	-41.16	-104.24	-116.33	-129.82	-144.87
Inventories	-	-8.54	7.94	14.57	-8.05	-20.20	-13.52	-15.09	-16.84	-18.79
Accounts Payable	-	47.55	-67.14	-92.91	120.57	1.42	30.67	34.23	38.20	42.63
Capital Expenditure	-1,864.08	-1,486.84	-739.01	-270.58	-490.70	-993.44	-1,108.64	-1,237.20	-1,380.67	-1,540.78
UFCF	2,173.02	574.75	2,357.77	1,302.23	2,454.53	1,766.23	1,950.84	2,177.06	2,429.52	2,711.25
WACC
PV UFCF						1,640.71	1,683.43	1,745.14	1,809.11	1,875.43
SUM PV UFCF										8,753.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.65
Free cash flow (t + 1)	2,765.48
Terminal Value	48,946.50
Present Value of Terminal Value	33,857.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	42,611.04
Net Debt	19,870.20
Equity Value	22,740.84
Shares Outstanding	487.36
Equity Value Per Share	46.66