Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Brigham Minerals, Inc. (MNRL)

$32.5

-0.52 (-1.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -245.33 | 32.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 40.9167.26101.5291.72161.22234.36340.68495.23719.901,046.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 117.1840.5929.93-21.63104.91195.81284.64413.77601.48874.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 117.1840.5929.93-69.8768.24107.52156.30227.21330.29480.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---48.2436.6888.28128.33186.56271.19394.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 10.9931.9851.139.1420.8269.22100.62146.26212.62309.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13.0520.6930.2917.6330.5461.2589.04129.44188.16273.52
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -102.75-196.33-219.95-66.99-103.60-420.44-611.18-888.45-1,291.52-1,877.43
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 32.5
Beta 1.869
Diluted Shares Outstanding 38.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 40.34
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.374
Total Debt 99.92
Total Equity 1,240.79
Total Capital 1,340.70
Debt Weighting 7.45
Equity Weighting 92.55
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 40.9167.26101.5291.72161.22234.36340.68495.23719.901,046.49
EBITDA 117.1840.5929.93-21.63104.91195.81284.64413.77601.48874.36
EBIT 117.1840.5929.93-69.8768.24107.52156.30227.21330.29480.14
Tax Rate 0.86%-0.66%11.02%18.04%40.34%13.92%13.92%13.92%13.92%13.92%
EBIAT 116.1640.8626.63-57.2640.7192.56134.55195.59284.32413.31
Depreciation ---48.2436.6888.28128.33186.56271.19394.22
Accounts Receivable --7.64-9.6012.66-12.91-30.71-27.79-40.40-58.72-85.36
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -102.75-196.33-219.96-66.99-103.60-420.44-611.18-888.45-1,291.52-1,877.43
UFCF 13.42-163.11-202.92-63.36-39.12-270.31-376.09-546.70-794.72-1,155.27
WACC
PV UFCF -242.37-302.35-394.07-513.63-669.46
SUM PV UFCF -2,121.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,178.37
Terminal Value -12,364.86
Present Value of Terminal Value -7,165.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -9,287.11
Net Debt 79.10
Equity Value -9,366.21
Shares Outstanding 38.18
Equity Value Per Share -245.33