Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Brigham Minerals, Inc. (MNRL)
$32.5
-0.52 (-1.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 40.91 | 67.26 | 101.52 | 91.72 | 161.22 | 234.36 | 340.68 | 495.23 | 719.90 | 1,046.49 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 117.18 | 40.59 | 29.93 | -21.63 | 104.91 | 195.81 | 284.64 | 413.77 | 601.48 | 874.36 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 117.18 | 40.59 | 29.93 | -69.87 | 68.24 | 107.52 | 156.30 | 227.21 | 330.29 | 480.14 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | 48.24 | 36.68 | 88.28 | 128.33 | 186.56 | 271.19 | 394.22 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 10.99 | 31.98 | 51.13 | 9.14 | 20.82 | 69.22 | 100.62 | 146.26 | 212.62 | 309.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 13.05 | 20.69 | 30.29 | 17.63 | 30.54 | 61.25 | 89.04 | 129.44 | 188.16 | 273.52 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -102.75 | -196.33 | -219.95 | -66.99 | -103.60 | -420.44 | -611.18 | -888.45 | -1,291.52 | -1,877.43 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 32.5 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.869 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 38.18 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 40.34 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.01% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.374 |
| Total Debt | 99.92 |
| Total Equity | 1,240.79 |
| Total Capital | 1,340.70 |
| Debt Weighting | 7.45 |
| Equity Weighting | 92.55 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 40.91 | 67.26 | 101.52 | 91.72 | 161.22 | 234.36 | 340.68 | 495.23 | 719.90 | 1,046.49 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 117.18 | 40.59 | 29.93 | -21.63 | 104.91 | 195.81 | 284.64 | 413.77 | 601.48 | 874.36 |
| EBIT | 117.18 | 40.59 | 29.93 | -69.87 | 68.24 | 107.52 | 156.30 | 227.21 | 330.29 | 480.14 |
| Tax Rate | 0.86% | -0.66% | 11.02% | 18.04% | 40.34% | 13.92% | 13.92% | 13.92% | 13.92% | 13.92% |
| EBIAT | 116.16 | 40.86 | 26.63 | -57.26 | 40.71 | 92.56 | 134.55 | 195.59 | 284.32 | 413.31 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | 48.24 | 36.68 | 88.28 | 128.33 | 186.56 | 271.19 | 394.22 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -7.64 | -9.60 | 12.66 | -12.91 | -30.71 | -27.79 | -40.40 | -58.72 | -85.36 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -102.75 | -196.33 | -219.96 | -66.99 | -103.60 | -420.44 | -611.18 | -888.45 | -1,291.52 | -1,877.43 |
| UFCF | 13.42 | -163.11 | -202.92 | -63.36 | -39.12 | -270.31 | -376.09 | -546.70 | -794.72 | -1,155.27 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -242.37 | -302.35 | -394.07 | -513.63 | -669.46 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -2,121.87 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.53 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,178.37 |
| Terminal Value | -12,364.86 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -7,165.24 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -9,287.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 79.10 |
| Equity Value | -9,366.21 |
| Shares Outstanding | 38.18 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -245.33 |