Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Moog Inc. (MOG-A)

$70.35

-0.90 (-1.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 39.96 | 70.35 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,497.522,709.472,904.662,884.552,851.992,950.883,053.203,159.063,268.593,381.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 307.30221.32304.28131.29327.82277.35286.96296.91307.21317.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 217.13132.74219.0244.31237.67182.97189.32195.88202.67209.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 90.1788.5785.2686.9790.1694.3797.65101.03104.54108.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 368.07125.5889.7084.5899.60170.47176.38182.50188.83195.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 727.74763.12940.58855.54945.93900.09931.30963.599971,031.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 489.13512.52534.97623.04613.09590.26610.73631.90653.81676.48
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 170.88207.42257.68176.87200.60215.61223.09230.82238.83247.11
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -75.80-94.52-118.42-88.28-128.73-107.26-110.98-114.83-118.81-122.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 70.35
Beta 1.285
Diluted Shares Outstanding 32.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.869
Total Debt 903.72
Total Equity 2,272.16
Total Capital 3,175.88
Debt Weighting 28.46
Equity Weighting 71.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,497.522,709.472,904.662,884.552,851.992,950.883,053.203,159.063,268.593,381.93
EBITDA 307.30221.32304.28131.29327.82277.35286.96296.91307.21317.86
EBIT 217.13132.74219.0244.31237.67182.97189.32195.88202.67209.70
Tax Rate 22.25%47.50%23.11%-69.93%22.85%9.16%9.16%9.16%9.16%9.16%
EBIAT 168.8269.69168.4175.30183.37166.22171.98177.95184.12190.50
Depreciation 90.1788.5785.2686.9790.1694.3797.65101.03104.54108.16
Accounts Receivable --35.38-177.4585.04-90.3945.84-31.21-32.29-33.41-34.57
Inventories --23.40-22.45-88.079.9522.83-20.47-21.18-21.91-22.67
Accounts Payable -36.5450.26-80.8123.7315.017.487.7488.28
Capital Expenditure -75.80-94.52-118.42-88.28-128.73-107.26-110.98-114.83-118.81-122.93
UFCF 183.1941.51-14.40-9.8588.08237.02114.45118.42122.52126.77
WACC
PV UFCF 219.7198.3494.3290.4686.76
SUM PV UFCF 589.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.88
Free cash flow (t + 1) 129.31
Terminal Value 2,199.10
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,505.01

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,094.60
Net Debt 804.12
Equity Value 1,290.48
Shares Outstanding 32.30
Equity Value Per Share 39.96