Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Moog Inc. (MOG-A)

$87.65

-1.09 (-1.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 21.93 | 87.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,709.472,904.662,884.552,851.993,035.783,125.553,217.963,313.113,411.083,511.94
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 221.32304.28131.29327.82278.22274.14282.24290.59299.18308.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 132.74219.0244.31237.67202.98181.25186.61192.13197.81203.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 88.5785.2686.9790.1675.2492.8895.6398.46101.37104.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 125.5889.7084.5899.60103.89109.83113.08116.42119.87123.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 763.12940.58855.54945.93990.26975.131,003.961,033.641,064.211,095.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 512.52534.97623.04613.09588.47623.95642.40661.39680.95701.08
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 207.42257.68176.87200.60232.10233.40240.30247.41254.72262.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -94.52-118.42-88.28-128.73-139.43-123.35-127-130.75-134.62-138.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 87.65
Beta 1.284
Diluted Shares Outstanding 32.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.55
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.762
Total Debt 978.39
Total Equity 2,830.92
Total Capital 3,809.31
Debt Weighting 25.68
Equity Weighting 74.32
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,709.472,904.662,884.552,851.993,035.783,125.553,217.963,313.113,411.083,511.94
EBITDA 221.32304.28131.29327.82278.22274.14282.24290.59299.18308.03
EBIT 132.74219.0244.31237.67202.98181.25186.61192.13197.81203.66
Tax Rate 47.50%23.11%-69.93%22.85%23.55%9.42%9.42%9.42%9.42%9.42%
EBIAT 69.69168.4175.30183.37155.18164.19169.04174.04179.19184.48
Depreciation 88.5785.2686.9790.1675.2492.8895.6398.46101.37104.37
Accounts Receivable --177.4585.04-90.39-44.3315.14-28.83-29.69-30.56-31.47
Inventories --22.45-88.079.9524.63-35.48-18.45-18.99-19.56-20.13
Accounts Payable -50.26-80.8123.7331.501.306.907.117.327.53
Capital Expenditure -94.52-118.42-88.28-128.73-139.43-123.35-127-130.75-134.62-138.60
UFCF 63.74-14.40-9.8588.08102.78114.6797.29100.17103.13106.18
WACC
PV UFCF 105.9483.0478.9975.1471.47
SUM PV UFCF 414.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.24
Free cash flow (t + 1) 108.31
Terminal Value 1,735.67
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,168.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,582.81
Net Debt 874.50
Equity Value 708.31
Shares Outstanding 32.30
Equity Value Per Share 21.93