Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
MoSys, Inc. (MOSY)
$4.5
+0.29 (+6.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 6.02 | 8.84 | 16.60 | 10.09 | 6.79 | 7.86 | 9.09 | 10.51 | 12.16 | 14.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -30.21 | -9.11 | -10.10 | -2.17 | -3.39 | -11.58 | -13.40 | -15.50 | -17.92 | -20.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -31.32 | -9.97 | -10.81 | -2.36 | -3.54 | -12.15 | -14.06 | -16.26 | -18.81 | -21.75 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.11 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.57 | 0.66 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 1.02 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 9.77 | 3.87 | 7.10 | 6.35 | 5.89 | 6.26 | 7.24 | 8.38 | 9.69 | 11.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 0.58 | 1.68 | 1.71 | 1.24 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 1.12 | 1.29 | 1.49 | 1.73 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.45 | 1.77 | 1.15 | 0.97 | 0.60 | 1.09 | 1.26 | 1.46 | 1.69 | 1.95 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.56 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.65 | -0.30 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.26 | -0.30 | -0.35 | -0.40 | -0.46 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 4.5 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.297 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2.17 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 13.630 |
| Total Debt | 3.67 |
| Total Equity | 9.74 |
| Total Capital | 13.41 |
| Debt Weighting | 27.37 |
| Equity Weighting | 72.63 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 6.02 | 8.84 | 16.60 | 10.09 | 6.79 | 7.86 | 9.09 | 10.51 | 12.16 | 14.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -30.21 | -9.11 | -10.10 | -2.17 | -3.39 | -11.58 | -13.40 | -15.50 | -17.92 | -20.73 |
| EBIT | -31.32 | -9.97 | -10.81 | -2.36 | -3.54 | -12.15 | -14.06 | -16.26 | -18.81 | -21.75 |
| Tax Rate | -0.14% | 2.14% | -0.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.38% |
| EBIAT | -31.36 | -9.76 | -10.83 | -2.36 | -3.54 | -12.11 | -14.01 | -16.20 | -18.74 | -21.67 |
| Depreciation | 1.11 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.57 | 0.66 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 1.02 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.11 | -0.03 | 0.47 | 0.53 | -0.26 | -0.15 | -0.17 | -0.20 | -0.23 |
| Inventories | - | -0.32 | 0.62 | 0.18 | 0.37 | -0.49 | -0.17 | -0.20 | -0.23 | -0.26 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.39 | 0.07 | -0.02 | -0.14 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.65 | -0.30 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.26 | -0.30 | -0.35 | -0.40 | -0.46 |
| UFCF | -30.90 | -11.01 | -9.51 | -1.64 | -2.70 | -12.38 | -13.93 | -16.11 | -18.63 | -21.55 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -11.08 | -11.16 | -11.56 | -11.96 | -12.39 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -58.15 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.71 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -21.98 |
| Terminal Value | -226.37 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -130.12 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -188.27 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -2.22 |
| Equity Value | -186.05 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.17 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -85.94 |