Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. (MPVDF)
$0.34405
-0.00 (-1.28%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 170.11 | 310.97 | 276.33 | 226.99 | 308.72 | 378.05 | 462.94 | 566.89 | 694.18 | 850.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 92.21 | 99.25 | -15.85 | -165.48 | 368.75 | 95.97 | 117.52 | 143.90 | 176.22 | 215.79 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 47.57 | 19.81 | -98.89 | -229.41 | 283.85 | -8 | -9.79 | -11.99 | -14.68 | -17.98 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 44.63 | 79.44 | 83.04 | 63.93 | 84.90 | 103.96 | 127.31 | 155.89 | 190.90 | 233.77 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 43.13 | 30.71 | 34.75 | 35.15 | 25 | 53.98 | 66.10 | 80.94 | 99.11 | 121.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 2.68 | 2.48 | 1.69 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 2.74 | 3.35 | 4.10 | 5.02 | 6.15 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 82.17 | 102.26 | 111.77 | 90.51 | 109.83 | 149.02 | 182.48 | 223.45 | 273.63 | 335.07 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 34.61 | 48.30 | 47.32 | 41.01 | 36.89 | 62.77 | 76.87 | 94.13 | 115.26 | 141.14 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -38.33 | -76.06 | -28.09 | -38.84 | -43.82 | -66.89 | -81.91 | -100.30 | -122.82 | -150.40 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.34,405 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.870 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 6.98 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.04% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.539 |
| Total Debt | 376.04 |
| Total Equity | 36.98 |
| Total Capital | 413.02 |
| Debt Weighting | 91.05 |
| Equity Weighting | 8.95 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 170.11 | 310.97 | 276.33 | 226.99 | 308.72 | 378.05 | 462.94 | 566.89 | 694.18 | 850.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 92.21 | 99.25 | -15.85 | -165.48 | 368.75 | 95.97 | 117.52 | 143.90 | 176.22 | 215.79 |
| EBIT | 47.57 | 19.81 | -98.89 | -229.41 | 283.85 | -8 | -9.79 | -11.99 | -14.68 | -17.98 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | -27.79% | 2.41% | 0.00% | 6.98% | -3.68% | -3.68% | -3.68% | -3.68% | -3.68% |
| EBIAT | 47.57 | 25.32 | -96.51 | -229.41 | 264.04 | -8.29 | -10.15 | -12.43 | -15.22 | -18.64 |
| Depreciation | 44.63 | 79.44 | 83.04 | 63.93 | 84.90 | 103.96 | 127.31 | 155.89 | 190.90 | 233.77 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.20 | 0.79 | 0.89 | -0.08 | -1.86 | -0.61 | -0.75 | -0.92 | -1.13 |
| Inventories | - | -20.09 | -9.51 | 21.27 | -19.33 | -39.18 | -33.46 | -40.97 | -50.18 | -61.44 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 13.68 | -0.98 | -6.31 | -4.12 | 25.88 | 14.10 | 17.26 | 21.14 | 25.88 |
| Capital Expenditure | -38.33 | -76.06 | -28.09 | -38.84 | -43.82 | -66.89 | -81.91 | -100.30 | -122.82 | -150.40 |
| UFCF | 53.87 | 22.49 | -51.26 | -188.47 | 281.59 | 13.62 | 15.27 | 18.70 | 22.90 | 28.04 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 12.56 | 12.99 | 14.66 | 16.56 | 18.70 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 75.47 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.44 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 28.60 |
| Terminal Value | 444.11 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 296.17 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 371.64 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 351.04 |
| Equity Value | 20.60 |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.19 |