Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Mersen SA (MRN.PA)

33.5 €

+0.55 (+1.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -16.93 | 33.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 809.20878.50950.20847.20922.80956.97992.401,029.141,067.241,106.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 99.70119.70137.5064.50135.90120.11124.56129.17133.95138.91
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 61.4082.2086.3011.6081.2069.2871.8474.5077.2680.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 38.3037.5051.2052.9054.7050.8452.7254.6756.7058.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 38.5048.6061.70136.7083.5080.3283.3086.3889.5892.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 158.80198.60207181.10218.20208.69216.42224.43232.74241.36
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6071.8060.6056.1067.1068.6371.1773.8176.5479.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -38.10-58.60-69.90-63.60-92.70-69.45-72.02-74.69-77.46-80.32
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 33.5
Beta 1.536
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.47
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.35
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.80%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.056
Total Debt 322.20
Total Equity 1,054.21
Total Capital 1,376.41
Debt Weighting 23.41
Equity Weighting 76.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 809.20878.50950.20847.20922.80956.97992.401,029.141,067.241,106.75
EBITDA 99.70119.70137.5064.50135.90120.11124.56129.17133.95138.91
EBIT 61.4082.2086.3011.6081.2069.2871.8474.5077.2680.12
Tax Rate 30.76%27.10%26.25%330.77%29.35%88.85%88.85%88.85%88.85%88.85%
EBIAT 42.5259.9363.64-26.7757.377.738.018.318.628.94
Depreciation 38.3037.5051.2052.9054.7050.8452.7254.6756.7058.79
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --39.80-8.4025.90-37.109.51-7.73-8.01-8.31-8.62
Accounts Payable -11.80-11.20-4.50111.532.542.642.732.83
Capital Expenditure -38.10-58.60-69.90-63.60-92.70-69.45-72.02-74.69-77.46-80.32
UFCF 42.7210.8325.34-16.07-6.730.15-16.48-17.09-17.72-18.37
WACC
PV UFCF 0.14-14.09-13.52-12.97-12.44
SUM PV UFCF -52.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) -18.74
Terminal Value -306.24
Present Value of Terminal Value -207.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -260.14
Net Debt 272.70
Equity Value -532.84
Shares Outstanding 31.47
Equity Value Per Share -16.93